#060 - Firas Modad - How a Terrorist Became Syria’s President
Mar 19, 2025
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Firas Modad, a geopolitical analyst and Middle East expert, dives deep into the ongoing turmoil in Syria and the complex web of global power struggles involving the US, Russia, and Iran. He discusses how sectarian divides fuel conflict and the failures of Western interventions. Modad addresses the challenges of nation-building in the Arab world and the impact of authoritarian leadership. The conversation also touches on the dark realities faced by Syrian refugees and the ideologies that underpin groups like ISIS, ultimately questioning Syria's path towards either reconciliation or continued violence.
The ongoing Syrian conflict is heavily shaped by deep-rooted sectarian divisions, particularly between the Sunni majority and minority groups like the Alawites.
Western interventions and the legacy of Iraq's regime change have exacerbated Syria's instability, leading to a cycle of violence and authoritarian governance.
The involvement of external powers, including the US and Iran, complicates Syria's governance structures and undermines prospects for national coherence and stability.
Deep dives
The Syrian Conflict and Sectarian Tensions
The episode explores the complex dynamics of the Syrian conflict, highlighting the rise of sectarian tensions among different religious groups, particularly the Sunnis and minorities such as the Alawites. There is a chilling reference to a decision that appears to have allowed violence against these minorities, resulting in estimates of casualties ranging widely from 900 to 9,000. The discussions indicate a notable enthusiasm among certain groups, particularly some Sunnis in Europe, to escalate violence, reflecting deep-rooted animosities that have persisted throughout Syria's history. This increases the troubling potential for further escalations and violence in the region, foreshadowing a cycle of retaliation and bloodshed.
Historical Context of Syria's Governance
The historical background of Syria is addressed, tracing its secular character and the evolution of its political landscape from the Ottoman Empire through to the establishment of modern nation-states. The segment emphasizes the artificial borders created after World War I, which failed to accommodate the diverse religious and ethnic landscapes of the region, leading to conflicts over identity and governance. The discussion underscores the impact of minoritized groups, such as the Alawites gaining power during the Ba'ath Party's rule, setting the stage for ongoing factional struggles. Understanding these historical underpinnings is essential to grasping the current schisms and ongoing strife in Syria.
The Impact of Western Intervention
Western influence on the Syrian conflict, especially post-9/11, is a prominent theme explored, suggesting that regime change in Iraq set off a wave of challenges for neighboring countries. Syria's president, Assad, responded to American pressures by channeling Sunni jihadis to fight in Iraq, which paradoxically impacted his own reign. This intricate web of geopolitics reveals a cycle where foreign interventions lead to internal instability, prompting the need for authoritarian governance as leaders like Assad sought to maintain control. The episode illustrates how the resultant chaos underscores the failure of Western policies designed to democratize the region, which ultimately perpetuated the very instability they aimed to eliminate.
Religious Identity and Political Control
The episode delves into the intertwining of religious identity and political power in Syria, illustrating how the regime's fears of the Sunni majority have shaped its oppressive tactics. The discussion highlights how the ruling minority, primarily Alawites, relies upon brutal practices to maintain dominance over a disorganized Sunni populace historically inclined to rivalries. Strategies employed by various regimes to suppress their citizens exploit religious identities, intertwining them with violent control mechanisms. This ongoing tension illustrates how deeply rooted sectarianism continues to drive conflicts, complicating efforts toward national unity.
The Role of External Powers
External powers' roles, particularly those of the United States, Israel, and Iran, significantly shape the conflict's trajectory in Syria. Discussion revolves around how foreign interests have complicated governance structures within Syria, exacerbating tensions by backing various factions with vastly different agendas. The dynamics between these power players reveal the challenges in achieving stability in the presence of competing influences, each supporting different factions for strategic gains. This results in a convoluted power struggle that undermines the possibility of a cohesive and functional Syrian state.
The Future of Syria and its Inhabitants
The episode concludes with speculation about the future implications of the ongoing violence and its potential directions, considering various scenarios for Syria’s future. There is a significant concern regarding the possibility of re-emerging civil war, underscored by retrospective references to past cycles of conflict. The juxtaposition of Assad’s consolidation of power against the backdrop of minority violence suggests a precarious equilibrium where historical grievances may resurface, leading to further bloodshed. The potential for international involvement is posited as a critical factor influencing the trajectory of the ongoing crisis, ultimately determining the lives of millions in Syria.
Firas Modad is a geopolitical analyst and Middle East expert, specialising in regional conflicts, sectarian divisions, and global power struggles.
In this interview, we explore the global power struggle over the Middle East, Syria’s ongoing turmoil, and the impact of US, Russian, and Iranian influence in the region. Modad explains why Syria remains a battleground, how sectarian divides shape conflict, and why attempts to build stable nation-states keep failing. We also discuss the legacy of Western intervention, the rise of jihadism, and whether Syria’s future is one of endless war or possible reconciliation.
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