Matthew Levitt on Israel’s War with Hizballah: How the terrorist group continues on despite its catastrophic losses.
Nov 1, 2024
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Matthew Levitt, a former U.S. Treasury Department official and author specializing in Hezbollah, dives into the complexities of Israel's ongoing conflict with the terrorist group. He discusses the surprising resilience of Hezbollah despite significant losses and disruptions to its command structure. Levitt also addresses the critical support from Iran and the implications of Israel's tactical successes for regional stability. The discussion highlights lessons from the 2006 war and explores how Israel can transform these tactical victories into strategic outcomes for its national security.
Israel's recent military operations have significantly degraded Hezbollah's capabilities, disrupting its command and communication structures amid ongoing threats from Iran.
Despite substantial losses, Hezbollah's resilience and continued operations underscore the importance of addressing Iranian support to ensure long-term stability in the region.
Deep dives
Recent Israeli Operations Against Hezbollah
Israel has conducted a series of successful military operations against Hezbollah, significantly degrading the organization’s capabilities. These operations have disrupted Hezbollah's command structure, resulting in the loss of key personnel and a substantial reduction in their arsenal, including a targeted approach that destroyed a significant number of rockets. By employing tactics such as targeting communications systems, Israel has crippled Hezbollah's operational readiness, making it harder for them to coordinate and execute attacks. Despite the extensive damage, there remains a possibility that Hezbollah can eventually recover, but its operational threats have been considerably diminished.
The Challenge of Hezbollah's Resilience
Hezbollah’s continued operation despite significant losses raises questions about its resilience and ability to adapt. The organization, although weakened, still has the capacity to function and maintain a level of military activity due to its established networks and resources. Their ongoing relationship with Iran provides them with a support system that could facilitate future resupply of arms and equipment. Furthermore, while Israel has made considerable gains, Hezbollah's experience suggests it will seek to reestablish itself when conditions allow, indicating that its threat may not be permanently neutralized.
The Role of Iran and Regional Dynamics
Hezbollah's military capabilities are heavily reliant on Iranian support, which not only supplies advanced weaponry but also provides vital training and operational guidance. This relationship complicates any attempts to fully diminish Hezbollah's threat, as Iran has a vested interest in its proxy's ability to counter Israeli actions and maintain a foothold in the region. The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran necessitate a broader strategy that not only addresses Hezbollah but also the Iranian network that backs it. As Hezbollah's position stabilizes, any shifts in Iranian strategy could further influence the military landscape in Lebanon and Israel.
Long-term Strategic Objectives for Israel
For Israel to secure a lasting peace and enable the safe return of displaced citizens, it must pursue strategic objectives beyond immediate tactical victories. Establishing effective border security through the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and ensuring regional stability are crucial components of this strategy. There is a need for a coordinated international effort to support the LAF in maintaining order and preventing Hezbollah from regaining control along the border. Ultimately, Israel must balance its military actions with diplomatic initiatives aimed at fostering stability within Lebanon, recognizing that a weakened Hezbollah does not equate to a peaceful and resilient Lebanon.
On October 25 of this year, Israel carried out a series of retaliatory strikes on military targets in Iran. The Iranian supreme leader has made public pronouncements ordering his military to prepare a series of counterstrikes, though, as of this recording, those counterstrikes have not yet commenced. The prospect of a continued exchange of aerial attacks between Israel and Iran has captured the world’s attention, and for good reason: Iran is a nuclear-threshold state operating in close coordination with Russia.
This shift in attention has taken media coverage away from Lebanon, but in fact, the Israeli military’s operational successes in that country over the last month raise some very important questions. Hizballah has been degraded significantly—its arsenal diminished, its leadership eliminated, its command structure disrupted, its lines of communication fractured, its decision-making process broken, its finances destroyed.
How, in light of this, does Hizballah continue to operate? And how does Israel leverage these impressive tactical successes into a strategic victory that will allow the citizens of the Galilee and the Golan to return to their homes?
Matthew Levitt, a former U.S. Treasury Department senior official and the author of Hezbollah: The Global Footprint of Lebanon’s Party of God, discusses these questions and others with Mosaic’s editor Jonathan Silver.
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