Will China's Military Dysfunction Buy Taiwan Time to Build Its Defenses?
Jan 18, 2024
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Taiwan should arm up according to Cato's Eric Gomez. Corruption in China's military could give Taiwan time to build up defenses. The podcast explores China's military dysfunction, its impact on Taiwan, and the US responsibility for Taiwan's defense.
Dysfunction within China's military provides an opportunity for Taiwan to strengthen its defense.
Addressing corruption within the PLA will give Taiwan time to enhance its defense capabilities.
Deep dives
Dysfunction in Chinese Military Creates Opportunity for Taiwan
The dysfunction within China's military has created an opportunity for Taiwan to strengthen its defense. Recent reports have highlighted corruption and incompetence within the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA), including instances of missiles being filled with water instead of fuel and poorly constructed silo doors. This dysfunction raises questions about China's military readiness and its ability to effectively challenge the United States. For Taiwan, this means a potential delay in China's military action and gives them time to focus on improving their defense capabilities. US policymakers should support Taiwan in developing an asymmetric defense strategy, emphasizing the acquisition of mobile and unmanned assets. Additionally, it is crucial for the US to practice self-restraint in its engagement with Taiwan to avoid alarming China unnecessarily.
Addressing Corruption and Non-Material Factors in Chinese Military
Corruption has been a persistent problem within the PLA, with officers misappropriating funds and engaging in impropriety. This corruption not only undermines the PLA's legitimacy but also hampers its preparedness to combat its main adversary, the United States. China recognizes the deep-rooted nature of this corruption and the negative impact it has on military readiness. In contrast, while no military is immune to corruption, the US military's overall effectiveness is not severely compromised. Recognizing these issues within China's military is crucial for a nuanced understanding of China's strength and its timeline for potential military action. Addressing corruption and non-material factors will give Taiwan the time it needs to enhance its defense capabilities.
Recommendations for US Policymakers and Taiwan
US policymakers should assist Taiwan in adopting an asymmetric defense strategy that focuses on acquiring assets like missiles and unmanned vehicles. This strategy would strengthen Taiwan's self-defense capabilities. Additionally, the US should exercise self-restraint in its engagement with China, avoiding actions that could trigger unnecessary tensions. It is important for Taiwan to recognize its own responsibility for its defense and prioritize self-reliance. The US should communicate the need for Taiwan to contribute more to its defense and step up its efforts. The recent events in Ukraine serve as a reminder that weaker countries can resist stronger ones, and the US support might be less reliable than previously assumed. Taiwan should closely consider US opinion on its commitment to Ukraine and seek to enhance its own defense capabilities accordingly.