Is Russia's Window for Gains this Summer Narrowing?
Jun 14, 2024
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Military analyst Michael Kofman discusses Russia's offensive in Kharkiv, Ukrainian response, US policy changes, Russian Navy's relocation in the Black Sea, lack of political support, prolonged war strategy, and future military advancements in Ukraine.
Russia aimed to create a buffer zone in Kharkiv, not achieve a major breakthrough.
US policy shift allowed Ukraine limited use of weapons near Kharkiv for enhanced security measures.
Deep dives
Russian Offensive in Kharkiv
The Russian offensive in Kharkiv was a significant but anticipated move. The Ukrainian defensive lines faced initial challenges but later stabilized as reserves were deployed. Russia's aim in Kharkiv was to create a buffer zone rather than achieve a major breakthrough. The offensive culminated without significant exploitation, and the front line quickly stabilized.
US Policy Shift on Strikes in Russia
A notable shift in US policy allowed Ukraine to use US weapons to strike targets in Russia near Kharkiv. This change, though significant, occurred after the offensive had been stabilized. The impact was limited due to restrictions on certain types of weapons and the specific region of authorization. The focus on enhancing air defenses and cybersecurity emerged as crucial for Ukraine's security.
Mobilization and Strategic Vision
Mobilization efforts in Ukraine and Russia were ongoing, with Ukraine facing challenges in rebuilding combat strength and sustaining the front line. The lack of a clear strategic vision and theory of success posed challenges, as the conflict transitioned towards attrition and potential exhaustion. Balancing short-term defense needs with long-term sustainability remained a critical concern for both countries.
Michael Kofman dropped into WOTR HQ to chat with Ryan about the war in Ukraine. From Russia's culminated offensive on Kharkiv, to battlefields of the Donbas, to ongoing fighting in the south, to Russia's displaced Black Sea Fleet, Mike parses through the data to try and assess where the war is heading next.
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