WTFinance Supply Glut, OPEC+ Collapse & Oil's Next Move | Josh Young
Dec 24, 2025
In this engaging conversation, Josh Young, a contrarian value investor and energy expert, discusses the surprises of the 2025 commodity market, including a low supply surplus and minimal geopolitical disruptions. He highlights OPEC+'s rapid production response and explores the complexities within non-OPEC supply, revealing political dynamics in Kazakhstan and Iraq. Josh also shares insights on the peak shale debate, efficiency improvements, and why he sees long-term potential in oil and gas equities, urging listeners to focus on sustainable investment strategies.
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Unexpected Low Supply Disruptions Drove 2025
- 2025 surprised with fewer geopolitical supply disruptions and a net oil surplus about 1 mb/d concentrated in H2.
- Josh Young says these surprises largely drove the oil price drop, not just demand weakness.
OPEC+ Likely To Recalibrate Not Wage Market Share War
- OPEC+ increased quotas quickly in 2025 because they expected stronger demand and less sanctioned supply.
- Josh thinks they may recalibrate and cut production in 2026 if prices don’t rebound materially.
Why Some OPEC Members 'Cheated' Quotas
- Iraq's overproduction partly stemmed from Kurdish-region deals and possible smuggling of Iranian oil.
- Kazakhstan's huge Chevron-funded expansion made it hard politically and contractually to curb output.