Explore the intricate dynamics of U.S.-China relations, focusing on Trump’s unique influence. Discover how China's elite and public sentiment reflects complex reactions to both Trump and Harris. Delve into the allure of Trump’s authoritarian approach and how it might strategically benefit China. Gain insights from Chinese experts on the implications of the upcoming U.S. election on foreign policy. Uncover the unpredictability of both Trump and Biden's approaches, challenging perceptions of China's political preferences.
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Quick takeaways
Chinese elites are divided in their preferences for Trump or Harris, reflecting complex sentiments rather than clear political stances.
Supporters of Trump in China are motivated by diverse reasons, from admiration for his policies to hopes for improved Chinese global standing.
Deep dives
Beijing's Ambiguous Preference
There is no clear consensus among Chinese elites regarding their preference for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris as U.S. presidential candidates. Speculation has intensified following Biden’s endorsement of Harris, with some posts on Chinese social media favoring Trump while criticizing Harris. This reflects existing sentiments related to perceived sexism and racism towards Harris, with discussions focusing on her background and politics rather than substantial policy debates. The lack of reliable indicators of party leadership preferences emphasizes the uncertainty within Chinese perspectives on U.S. political outcomes.
Chinese Support for Trump
There are three main groups among Chinese supporters of Trump, each driven by different motivations. The first group admires Trump's policies without necessarily considering their implications for China, praising his directness and nationalism. The second group believes that Trump's isolationist approach would improve China's standing on the world stage by reducing military conflicts. Finally, the third group supports Trump because they think he would destabilize American power, which they perceive as beneficial for China's global influence.
The Implications of U.S. Policies
Chinese analysts predict that regardless of the candidate's victory, both will maintain a confrontational stance towards China in the long term. Scholars suggest that while Trump's policies may be disruptive, Biden's approach could pose a greater risk due to its multilateral strategy and emphasis on technology competition. This nuanced view illustrates that, for Beijing, the implications of U.S. policy extend beyond individual candidates to broader geopolitical dynamics. The possibility of a Harris presidency is viewed with cautious optimism for some, suggesting a potential recalibration rather than an outright reset of U.S.-China relations.
Hey folks! I took some time off to drive the kids to college and then flew to California to celebrate my brother John’s birthday. The upshot is there’s no interview this week, so in place of that, here’s my essay from this week. Hope you enjoy it. If all goes as planned, I’m back next week with regular interview for Sinica!
You can find the text of the essay at sinicapodcast.com.