OIES Podcast – Geopolitics of Gas: The Limits of Leverage

In this lates OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Bill Farren-Price about their latest paper on the geopolitics that is influencing, and being influenced by, the global gas market. They start with a general overview of the current gas market and the key political drivers that are impacting the views of suppliers and consumers on the future of gas. They consider the impact of the sharp change in the direction of Russian exports since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, reflecting on the strong position this now gives to China as it further diversifies its sources of gas supply. The role of the US is also a key point of discussion, as expanding LNG exports could potentially be undermined by an overly aggressive stance on energy dominance from the White House. Gas demand in Europe appears to be on an inexorable decline, but the region could be swapping one source of supply risk (Russia) for another (US LNG). The key takeaway, though, is that at a time when overall LNG supply is set to increase sharply, major importers such as the EU, China and other regions in Asia can enhance their bargaining power and may be more inclined to do so if major suppliers try to use gas exports as a source of political power.

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