Annie Jacobsen on Nuclear War - a Second by Second Timeline
Apr 5, 2024
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Annie Jacobsen, an expert on nuclear war, lays out a second-by-second timeline for nuclear war scenarios. Discussions include time pressure, detecting nuclear attacks, decisions under pressure, submarines, interceptor missiles, cyberattacks, and concentration of power.
Nuclear war timeline underscores time pressure and swift decisions.
Challenges in deterrence strategies are highlighted by national security experts.
Interceptor missile systems face limitations countering nuclear threats.
Deep dives
The Premise of the Book: Examining Nuclear War and Deterrence Strategies
The podcast delves into the premise of the latest book, highlighting how the author transitioned to focusing on nuclear war after extensive research on war, weapons, and national security. By interviewing numerous national security experts, including presidential advisors and CIA directors, the author explores a scenario where deterrence fails and a nuclear war occurs, sparking a terrifying ticking clock concept.
Questioning Deterrence Strategies: Reevaluation Sparked by Inside Insights
Through discussions with national security figures and analyses of internal events, the podcast challenges the concept of deterrence. Key figures within the military express concerns over the stability of deterrence strategies, especially in scenarios where authorities question traditional protocols and the swift unraveling that could ensue if deterrence mechanisms fail.
Crisis Unfolding: Reacting to Nuclear Threats and Presidential Decision-Making
The episode unveils the intense timeline of reactions following a nuclear threat detection, detailing the intricate moments for presidential decision-making within minutes. From satellite systems detecting launches to underground command centers briefing the president, the urgency and gravity of each decision point, including the swift mechanisms and challenges faced in determining real threats.
Global Nuclear Risk and Modern Realities
The podcast delves into the evolution of nuclear weapons proliferation, highlighting the escalation of nuclear capabilities post-World War II. The discussion emphasizes the current global landscape marked by increased nuclear risks, citing instances like Russia and North Korea's mentions of nuclear use. Despite the world's changed dynamics, the likelihood of complete disarmament is portrayed as challenging and somewhat mythical, presenting a daunting conundrum for international security.
Challenges in Defense Technology and Decision-Making
The episode explores the complexities of defense strategies, particularly focusing on interceptor missile systems. It analyzes the limitations of such defensive measures given the vast number of ready-to-launch nuclear weapons compared to the limited quantity of interceptors. The discussion incisively critiques the low success rates of interceptor missiles and the daunting technological challenges they face in countering incoming nuclear threats. Moreover, the episode raises concerns about the vulnerability of outdated command and control systems to cyber attacks, highlighting the need for modernization and security enhancements in the face of evolving technological threats.
Annie Jacobsen joins the podcast to lay out a second by second timeline for how nuclear war could happen. We also discuss time pressure, submarines, interceptor missiles, cyberattacks, and concentration of power. You can find more on Annie's work at https://anniejacobsen.com
Timestamps:
00:00 A scenario of nuclear war
06:56 Who would launch an attack?
13:50 Detecting nuclear attacks
19:37 The first critical seconds
29:42 Decisions under time pressure
34:27 Lessons from insiders
44:18 Submarines
51:06 How did we end up like this?
59:40 Interceptor missiles
1:11:25 Nuclear weapons and cyberattacks
1:17:35 Concentration of power
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