Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 69: Another Tariff Tantrum? With Kevin Muir.
8 snips
Jul 7, 2025 
Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, brings his macroeconomic expertise to analyze the current tariff landscape. He discusses the potential volatility ahead as new tariffs loom and evaluates the implications for the dollar and bond markets. Muir suggests that the trade war isn't over and delves into how tariffs might impact small businesses and market sentiment. Additionally, he shares his bearish outlook on the dollar and explores the relationship between gold, oil, and currency fluctuations. Humorous exchanges about beer and pop culture round out the conversation.
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Trump's Tariff Love & Impact Uncertainty
- Kevin Muir highlights that Trump truly loves tariffs and may impose 15-20% tariffs broadly on the U.S.
- The economic and market impacts of such a tariff shift after decades are deeply uncertain and unprecedented.
Stimulus and Risks in Economy
- The 2023 "Big Beautiful" bill is actually very stimulative in the short term, especially benefiting higher income groups.
- Despite good jobs data, indicators hint at underlying risks like potential rising unemployment amid full employment.
Markets Often Misread Reality
- Markets can behave irrationally for extended periods, rising even when fundamentals deteriorate.
- Historical examples like 2007 and 1998 show that market sentiment can mislead investors about true economic health.
