Johannes Ackva, an environmental activist and climate change expert, discusses the main drivers of climate change and our best technological and governmental options for managing it. Topics include renewable energy sources, nuclear energy, government subsidies, carbon taxation, planting trees, influencing government policy, different climate scenarios, and the decoupling of economic growth and emissions.
Solar and wind energy are cost-competitive, produce no carbon emissions, and offer decentralized production options.
Nuclear energy offers high energy density and minimal environmental impact, but faces challenges such as high costs and regulatory complexity.
Small modular reactors (SMRs) have potential as a mass-produced and flexible solution for integrating with renewable-dominated grids.
Geothermal energy, combined with other clean technologies, can provide stable, dispatchable power and help decarbonize electricity.
Deep dives
The Advantages of Solar and Wind
Solar and wind energy are becoming increasingly cheaper and are already cost-competitive in many places. They produce no carbon emissions or air pollution and can be deployed quickly. They also offer decentralized and smaller-scale production options.
Challenges and Uncertainties of Solar and Wind
Solar and wind energy face challenges such as intermittency, seasonal storage, and transmission. While the short-term storage can be addressed with batteries, solving the issues of seasonal storage and transmission requires further technological advancements. The percentage of energy production that can be replaced by solar and wind alone remains uncertain, with scenarios ranging from almost 100% in the best-case scenarios to lower percentages in more challenging situations.
The Advantages and Disadvantages of Nuclear Energy
Nuclear energy offers high energy density and minimal environmental impact compared to other energy sources. However, it also presents risks of accidents, concerns about nuclear waste, and the dual-use potential for nuclear weapons. The current challenges in the nuclear energy sector include high costs, long construction times, and the complexity of regulatory and societal factors.
The Potential of Small Modular Reactors
Small modular reactors (SMRs) have the advantage of being more easily mass-produced and deployed. They can leverage the same learning curve dynamics that made renewables and other technologies cheaper. SMRs are also more flexible and can better integrate with a renewable-dominated grid. While they offer potential solutions, the ultimate scale of their deployment remains uncertain.
The Potential of Geothermal Energy
Geothermal energy is gaining momentum, especially in the form of advanced geothermal or ultra-deep geothermal. By drilling deeper, this technology becomes less location-dependent and offers higher energy density and economic viability. It leverages advancements in drilling techniques developed for fracking, making it an attractive option for clean, firm power generation. Geothermal energy, when combined with other clean technologies like nuclear power, can address the challenge of decarbonizing electricity and provide a stable, dispatchable energy source.
The Role of Government and Philanthropy
Government intervention and support have played a significant role in driving energy innovation and transformation in the past. Subsidies, regulation, and research and development funding have been key factors in successful energy technology advancements. Philanthropy can also influence government policies and fund advocacy efforts to shape energy innovation. While there are debates about the government's ability to pick winners, history shows that government involvement has been crucial in both successes and failures in energy technology development. Philanthropy can have a meaningful impact in shaping government policies, especially in areas where attention and resources are limited.
Climate Scenarios, Prioritization, and Clean Firm Solutions
Climate projections suggest that meeting the global climate targets is uncertain, and the most probable scenarios exceed the targets. The highest expected damage falls within the range of 2.5 to 3.5 degrees Celsius of warming. In these scenarios, clean firm power sources, such as geothermal energy and advanced nuclear, become more promising, as renewable scaling and electrification may not be sufficient. Philanthropic efforts should focus on areas that are both reasonably likely and have significant potential damage. Additionally, advocating for regulatory reform, innovation policies, and regional prioritization can help address climate challenges effectively.
Johannes Ackva joins the podcast to discuss the main drivers of climate change and our best technological and governmental options for managing it. You can read more about Johannes' work at http://founderspledge.com/climate
Timestamps:
00:00 Johannes's journey as an environmentalist
13:21 The drivers of climate change
23:00 Oil, coal, and gas
38:05 Solar, wind, and hydro
49:34 Nuclear energy
57:03 Geothermal energy
1:00:41 Most promising technologies
1:05:40 Government subsidies
1:13:28 Carbon taxation
1:17:10 Planting trees
1:21:53 Influencing government policy
1:26:39 Different climate scenarios
1:34:49 Economic growth and emissions
1:37:23 Social stability
References:
Emissions by sector: https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector
Energy density of different energy sources: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-25341-9
Emissions forecasts: https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/publication/the-unconditional-probability-distribution-of-future-emissions-and-temperatures/ and https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adg6248
Risk management: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JJvIR1W-xI
Carbon pricing: https://www.cell.com/joule/pdf/S2542-4351(18)30567-1.pdf
Why not simply plant trees?: https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/how-many-new-trees-would-we-need-offset-our-carbon-emissions
Deforestation: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ade3535
Decoupling of economic growth and emissions: https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/22/highlights.htm
Premature deaths from air pollution: https://www.unep.org/interactives/air-pollution-note/
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