Nicholas Pelham, the Middle East correspondent for The Economist, dives deep into Iran's intricate geopolitical strategies. He discusses the recent American airstrikes on Iranian-linked Syrian bases, emphasizing Iran's proxy conflicts in the region. Pelham unpacks Iran's delicate balancing act as it maneuvers between tensions with the US and Israel. The conversations offer insights into the extensive implications these dynamics hold for international relations and the risk of a wider conflict.
Iran aims to escalate tensions with the West and Israel without triggering a full-blown war, maintaining a delicate balance.
The escalating conflict raises concerns for countries like Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, who fear being dragged into the war and facing further instability.
Deep dives
US airstrikes in Syria against Iran-led forces
The US conducted airstrikes in Syria against bases used by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its partners. The strikes were in response to attacks on American personnel in Syria and Iraq. While the US has emphasized that the strikes were not linked to the conflict with Israel and Hamas, Iran has been funding and supporting various groups across the Middle East, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian territories. Iran aims to escalate tensions with the West and Israel without triggering a full-blown war, but this delicate balance is difficult to maintain.
The gains and risks for Iran in escalating conflict
Iran has already gained by delaying the normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which would have isolated Iran in a predominantly Sunni-led region. Additionally, the current regional turmoil has increased the price of oil, benefiting Iran as it pumps over 3 million barrels per day. However, Iran faces risks in escalating the conflict further. An all-out war could draw Iran into a full-blown conflict with the US and lead to domestic unrest. Iranian proxies across the Middle East, known as the Axis of Resistance, also play a crucial role, but their actions are not fully controlled by Iran.
Concerns and responses of other regional players
The escalating conflict raises concerns for countries like Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is reluctant to enter the conflict, fearing further instability in his country. Lebanon is concerned about being dragged into a war between Hezbollah and Israel, as it hampers their economic recovery. Iraq, already facing its own challenges, fears being caught in a power struggle between Iran and the US. The actions of other proxy groups, such as the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq, further add to tensions in the region. Any further escalation could have far-reaching consequences, potentially involving Russia and China as well.
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