NatSec Matters The Future of the Iranian Regime: Jeffrey Feltman
Jan 21, 2026
Michael interviews Jeffrey Feltman, a former U.S. diplomat and expert on Middle Eastern politics, about the turmoil in Iran. Feltman discusses the regime's violent crackdown on protests and the significant economic challenges the country faces. He highlights the diverse nature of the protests and the critical factors that might lead to regime collapse, including potential elite defections. Feltman suggests nonkinetic approaches to support protesters and examines the implications of a weakened Iran for the region.
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Protests Were Nationwide And Deeply Diverse
- The 2025 protests were the broadest in Iran's history, spanning all 31 provinces and diverse social groups.
- Jeffrey Feltman says survival by brutality doesn't equal regime success because core grievances remain unaddressed.
Economic Collapse Fueled The Uprising
- The protests began as an economic revolt driven by collapsing currency, hyperinflation, and subsidy cuts.
- Feltman links merchant and bazaar participation to historical tipping points against regimes.
Elite Cohesion Prevents Immediate Collapse
- Using Jack Goldstone's five factors, Iran checks fiscal collapse, opposition narrative, broad-based opposition, and friendly international environment.
- The missing element is elite splintering; the regime remains cohesive, preventing collapse.