Gallup Inc Editor-In-Chief Mohamed Younis Talks US Election Polling
Dec 27, 2023
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Mohamed Younis, Editor-In-Chief at Gallup Inc, talks about US election polling. They discuss the importance of trust in AI governance, the impact of legal battles on Donald Trump's nomination, Joe Lieberman's candidacy and the rise of independent voters.
President Biden's low approval rating poses a challenge in a hyper-partisan election year.
Donald Trump's legal challenges are unlikely to affect his support, according to polls.
Deep dives
President Biden's low approval rating heading into re-election
President Biden enters the election year with the lowest approval rating of any modern president. His approval rating currently stands at 39%, compared to previous presidents at this stage of their presidency. This poses a challenge for President Biden, but it's important to consider the unique factors of this election year and the hyper-partisan environment. Historically, economic conditions and attitudes towards the economy have played a crucial role in elections, and Republicans are likely to focus on issues such as the size of government and immigration during the primaries.
Impact of legal challenges on Donald Trump's support
Donald Trump's legal challenges are unlikely to negatively impact his support among his base. In fact, these challenges seem to solidify his support. Polls indicate that people who support President Trump are generally not influenced by these legal issues. While individual state court decisions may not significantly impact the election or primaries, it is essential to pay attention to voter sentiment as the year progresses.
The rise of independent voters and the challenge for new entrants
There is a significant rise in the number of Americans identifying as independents, currently at about 42%. This trend indicates a potential willingness for voters to consider alternative approaches beyond the traditional partisan paradigm. However, it's important to note that identifying as an independent does not necessarily align with a specific ideology or set of policies. Building name recognition and establishing a unique presence will be a challenge for new entrants like Nikki Haley, especially when competing against established figures like former President Trump and President Biden.
Mohamed Younis, Editor-In-Chief at Gallup Inc, discusses polling ahead of next year's US presidential election. He speaks with Bloomberg's Sonali Basak and Vonnie Quinn.