Michael Howell: Monetary Inflation Is Here

9 snips

Jun 10, 2025

In this insightful discussion, Michael Howell, Managing Director of Crossborder Capital and a global liquidity expert, warns of impending monetary inflation amid rising global bond yields. He explains the dangers of current debt-to-liquidity mismatches and critiques the outdated 60/40 portfolio model. Howell highlights how China's liquidity surge may be driving gold and Bitcoin markets, and discusses the looming 2026–2028 refinancing cliff that could spell crisis. This conversation is a must-listen for anyone evaluating their investment strategies in a volatile economy.

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INSIGHT

Rising Global Bond Yields

Global bond yields are rising, signaling growing uncertainty about future rates and inflation worldwide.
Rising yields threaten stocks and reflect a significant global financial shift, not just a US issue.

INSIGHT

Gold and Real Rates Divergence

Real interest rates generally inversely correlate with gold prices, but this relationship broke down after late 2022.
The disconnect suggests accelerating monetary inflation as fiscal and monetary prudence declines.

INSIGHT

Debt-To-Liquidity Ratio Crucial

The key metric is the debt-to-liquidity ratio, not debt-to-GDP, as debt must be rolled over with liquidity.
Past financial crises coincided with stretched debt-to-liquidity ratios, warning of major risk ahead.

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Michael Howell warns that the global financial system is approaching a breaking point, not from a recession, but from a massive mismatch between debt and liquidity. As the U.S. and other governments try to roll over trillions in short-term debt at rising interest rates, the quiet result is monetary inflation.

In this explosive interview with James Connor, Howell explains why 5% bond yields are the new normal, why the 60/40 portfolio model is obsolete, and why China, not just the Fed, may be driving the gold bull market. He warns that global bond markets are flashing danger, and the coming 2026–2028 refinancing cliff could trigger the next big crisis.

Key Topics:

• Why bond yields are rising globally, and what that means for markets

• The most overlooked metric: debt-to-liquidity, not debt-to-GDP

• How governments are quietly monetizing deficits, risking long-term damage

• Why China’s liquidity surge may be fueling the gold and Bitcoin rally

• The real reason traditional portfolios won’t survive this macro regime

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Chapters:
01:23 - Markets on Edge: What April’s Chaos Taught Us

03:23 - Bond Yields Are Screaming—Is Anyone Listening?

13:14 - America’s $9 Trillion Problem No One Wants to Talk About

23:18 - Why 5% Treasuries Might Be Here to Stay

27:49 - Will a Recession Be the Pin That Pops the Bubble?

34:15 - Market Mania vs. Debt Reality: Who Wins?

36:08 - Japan & China Are Dumping Treasuries—Should You Worry?

37:57 - Can Raising Retirement Ages Save the System?

40:33 - Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”: Boom or Budget Buster?

45:45 - The Fed’s Dilemma: Rate Cuts or a Crash Landing?

50:24 - Gold or Bitcoin: What Survives an Inflation Storm?

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#Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #Investing #Macro #Inflation #InterestRates #FederalReserve #Gold #Bitcoin #Bonds #DebtCrisis #Liquidity #RealAssets #Stagflation #MonetaryPolicy #GlobalMarkets

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