Comfort Ero, President of the International Crisis Group, joins the podcast to share her analysis of 10 conflicts to watch in 2024. They discuss conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan, and Yemen, the rise of global conflicts due to great power competition and loss of faith in institutions, the role of the African Union in mediating conflicts, and what regular citizens can do in the face of global conflicts.
Conflicts are spreading globally due to a lack of leadership and crumbling constraints on the use of force.
Peacemaking efforts are hindered by the erosion of trust in key institutions and leaders prioritizing military might over diplomacy.
The African Union needs stronger leadership to play a central role in resolving conflicts in Sudan, Ethiopia, and the Sahel, while the Middle East requires de-escalation and efforts to prevent wider regional war.
Deep dives
Increase in Global Conflicts
The International Crisis Group warns of a troubling trend with conflicts spreading across the world. Statistical data indicates an increase in global conflicts, which are occurring in every region Crisis Group operates in. The rise of war and militarism is fueled by a lack of leadership and crumbling constraints on the use of force. The international institutions tasked with dealing with conflicts seem to be struggling to effectively address the growing number of crises. The global community is facing an unusually conflict-heavy period with limited ability to prevent and resolve wars.
Challenges of Peacemaking
Peacemaking efforts are hindered by the lack of restraint on the use of military force and the erosion of trust in key institutions. Various conflicts illustrate leaders prioritizing military might over diplomacy and disregarding international norms and laws. Armenia and Azerbaijan's ongoing conflict highlights the potential dangers of one faction feeling unrestrained when a restraining power is caught up in another conflict. Similar dynamics are observed in Ethiopia and Sudan, where competing factions see no restraining power and resort to militarized approaches to handling crises. The crisis of peacemaking and the vulnerability of institutions exacerbate the challenges of resolving conflicts.
Role of Regional and International Actors
The African Union's role in mediating conflicts in Sudan, Ethiopia, and the Sahel has been questioned. While it has demanded respect and played a vital peacekeeping role, its capacity and political direction have often been limited. The African Union needs to assert stronger leadership and take a more central role in resolving conflicts on the continent. In conflicts like Ukraine, the United States plays an important role but faces challenges in exerting influence and bringing about a resolution. The inability to achieve effective diplomacy, an absence of endgame, and great power competition contribute to the prolonged conflicts.
Concerns in the Middle East
The escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, raises concerns about the potential for a wider regional war. The danger of a major miscalculation and further escalation looms large. Efforts to de-escalate and secure a viable ceasefire become crucial. The United States' role in the conflict has been criticized for not effectively nudging Israel and for providing unconditional support. The need to reduce tensions and prevent further escalation is paramount.
Taking Action as Citizens
In the face of global conflicts and the limitations of international systems, citizens can contribute by advocating for policy change and pushing their leaders to address conflicts. Staying informed about conflicts, engaging with organizations like Crisis Group, and amplifying the message of peace and resolution are powerful ways to make a difference. Bringing awareness to lesser-known conflicts and putting pressure on leaders to prioritize diplomatic efforts can impact the trajectory of these crises.
With wars in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, the world begins the new year on high alert. Comfort Ero, the president of the International Crisis Group, joins Ravi Agrawal to share her analysis of the state of the world, building on her annual essay in Foreign Policy.
