Trump Tariff Talk, Tepper’s New China Bets, and NFL Superagent Drew Rosenhaus 2/10/25
Feb 10, 2025
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Venu Krishna, head of U.S. equity-linked strategies at Barclays, shares insights on President Trump’s potential tariffs and their implications for S&P earnings. He discusses how China is better prepared this time around and what sectors may be at risk. The conversation also covers David Tepper's big bets on Chinese tech stocks like Alibaba amid market uncertainties. Additionally, NFL superagent Drew Rosenhaus weighs in on the league’s growth and the balance between expansion and player health.
President Trump's proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports could lead to a low single-digit decline in S&P earnings, impacting market sectors significantly.
David Tepper's increased investments in Chinese tech stocks suggest a strategic bet on recovery, reflecting a shift towards undervalued opportunities amid trade uncertainties.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariffs on the Market
The recent announcement of new tariffs proposed by President Trump is projected to have a significant impact on the market, particularly affecting sectors like energy materials and discretionary spending. It is estimated that these tariffs could lead to a low single-digit decline in S&P earnings. Investors are monitoring the potential retaliatory actions that could stem from these tariffs, which further complicates the economic outlook. Despite the negative implications, there seems to be an overall belief in the market that these tariffs may not fully materialize, contributing to a somewhat positive market sentiment.
Investor Sentiment and Specific Stocks
There is a notable divergence in stock performance based on investor sentiment, especially among small-cap stocks and sectors deemed 'Trump trades.' With only about 60 percent of S&P 500 stocks in a technical uptrend, the market's behavior has shifted to a more selective nature. Specific stocks, like those associated with tariffs and trade, have experienced fluctuations influenced by the evolving market conditions. For instance, shares of T-Mobile surged following announcements of partnerships to test satellite services, indicating sector-specific dynamics amid broader market trends.
Chinese Economic Strategy amid Tariff War
China appears to be positioning itself strategically in response to the ongoing tariff tensions with the United States. The Chinese economy is reportedly at a lower growth rate compared to previous years, prompting a recalibration of its trade and investment strategies. There is an emphasis on maintaining strong international trade ties while avoiding the escalation of a full trade war. This strategy includes moving towards higher-value products and diversifying trade relationships beyond the U.S., indicating a proactive approach to mitigating tariff impacts.
David Tepper's Investment Moves
David Tepper's recent 13F filing reveals a significant increase in his holdings of Chinese technology stocks, alongside a reduction in investments in larger cap stocks. This shift demonstrates a strategic bet on the recovery and potential of Chinese tech amidst a challenging macroeconomic landscape. Tepper’s investment philosophy places a strong emphasis on identifying undervalued opportunities, particularly in sectors that may rebound from trade uncertainties. His bullish stance on everything related to China has sparked discussions about the viability and timing of investing in Chinese markets despite their current challenges.
Fresh headlines over the weekend as President Trump considers more tariffs (this time on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S.) – and China’s retaliatory ones begin. Carl Quintanilla, Leslie Picker and Scott Wapner broke down the latest out of Washington, and what it all means for the market. Why one London School of Economics professor says China’s better prepared for tariffs this time around. Plus – David Tepper betting big on related stocks like Alibaba and JD.com according to a new 13F filing, released during the hour – the team discussed the move… along with Barclay’s prediction of the sectors most at risk of tariff headwinds.
Also in focus: Financials one of the best performing sectors over the last 1-year – what’s driving the gain; NFL Superagent Drew Rosenhaus talks the big game; and the backlash over one telehealth company’s first ever Superbowl commercial