Vietnam: $12B Fraud Death Penalty, "Blazing Furnace" Anti-Corruption Campaign & Cambodia China 180km Canal Tensions - E407

Valerie Vu, Founding Partner of Ansible Ventures, and Jeremy Au talked about three main themes:

1. $12B Fraud Death Penalty: Jeremy and Valerie discussed Vietnam's largest-ever fraud trial regarding Vietnamese tycoon Truong My Lan and the Van Thinh Phat group. The $12B case impacted 6% of Vietnam's GDP and has led to real estate distress, economic uncertainty and regulatory upheaval. They elaborated on Truong’s moves to control Saigon Commercial Bank (SCB), far beyond legal limits (90% control versus the regulatory cap of 5% for individuals). They also talked about Vietnamese regulators’ harsh response by tightening financial controls, mandating bank ownership disclosures, and proposing to reduce the maximum ownership stake an individual can hold in a bank from 5% to 3%. They touched on the similarities between China and Vietnam for the intertwining of real estate and banking.

2. "Blazing Furnace" Anti-Corruption Campaign: Jeremy and Valerie discussed the campaign by Nguyễn Phú Trọng, general secretary of the Communist Party that has arrested or forced resignations of key political figures, including ministers and deputy prime ministers. They drew parallels between Vietnam and China’s anti-corruption campaign under Xi Jinping, where both aim at purging the system of corruption yet lead to power vacuums that will be filled by individuals loyal to the new leadership.

3. Cambodia China 180km Canal Tensions: The planned $1.7B Funan Techo Canal project allows Cambodia's imports and exports to bypass Vietnam's Mekong River ports and directly access the South China Sea. China's financing and development partnership is tied to its Belt and Road Initiative, investments to escape US military containment of key trade routes, and rebalancing with Vietnam. They discussed the negative environmental impact on downstream Vietnamese farmers already struggling with saltwater intrusion and climate change.

Jeremy and Valerie also talked about the psychological impact of fluctuating property values on Vietnamese consumers, ongoing economic reforms to diversify away from real estate dependency, and parallels with Singapore's concern regarding the Thai Kra Canal. 

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