Michael Barnard, an energy transition expert, joins Gerard and Laurent to kick off the new year with bold predictions for 2025. They discuss the potential decline of U.S. oil production and falling oil prices, forecasting a dramatic shift in the energy landscape. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain stresses may spur innovative solutions. The team humorously reflects on the challenges facing hydrogen in transportation and predicts a record surge in solar and EV adoption. They also foresee the end of ESG-labeled financial products, sparking a lively debate.
Stellantis has pivoted its EV strategy toward local partnerships while the global market dynamics necessitate innovation in the automotive sector.
The uncertain political landscape in the U.S. underscores the complex relationship between governance and the ongoing energy transition.
Deep dives
Stellantis and the Shift in EV Production
Stellantis has shifted its strategy in the electric vehicle (EV) market by forming a joint venture with Leap Motor to import Chinese-made EVs into Europe. This approach contrasts with earlier predictions of outsourcing production, which did not fully materialize as anticipated. Additionally, the company is partnering with CATL to establish a battery gigafactory in Spain, which benefits from favorable industrial policies and a supportive energy landscape. This pivot reflects broader trends among Western automakers facing significant declines in profit, highlighting the need for innovation and adaptation in a rapidly evolving market.
Impact of Politics on Energy Transition
The political landscape in the U.S. has emerged as a variable affecting energy policies, particularly with potential shifts following the 2024 elections. While there are concerns about a rollback of pro-green initiatives, the podcast suggests that the energy transition has not been derailed, as record installations of renewable energy technologies continued into 2024. The impact of political changes on future energy policies remains uncertain, particularly for offshore wind developments. This situation underscores the complex interplay between governance and sustainable energy advancements.
China's Dominance in Wind and EV Markets
Chinese manufacturers have significantly expanded their presence in international markets, particularly in wind energy and electric vehicles (EVs). This remarkable growth indicates China's capacity not only to meet domestic demand but also to export its products globally. Despite concerns regarding the high percentage of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles being exported, innovations and investments in renewable technologies continue to position China as a leader. The implications of this growing market share reflect a shift in the global energy landscape and competitive dynamics.
Happy new year to all our listeners. It has become a tradition for the first episode of the year: Gerard, Laurent and Michael present their 2025 Predictions in the Energy Transition.
Here are the predictions that were made a year ago. 1) Stellantis will outsource its EV production in China 2) Politics: Elections in 2024 could derail the Energy Transition 3) Oversupply of everything energy related – Prices are going down 4) Stronger top-down governance of Transmission and Interconnection 5) The return of Clean Energy shares 6) China will gain massive international market in Wind and EVs
Winner for best predictions is Michael Barnard, and the loser is Laurent (as usual)
And here are our 6 predictions for 2025 1) Oil production down in the US in 2025 2) Oil prices will hit 40USD/bl in 2025 3) Geopolitics, stressed supply chains and Energy bonanza will bring a more innovative and better world 4) A bloodbath for Hydrogen in the Transportation sector 5) Record installation of Solar (700GW), EVs (20m) and Batteries (200GWh) 6) The end of all financial products labelled ESG, Climate and Carbon
We wish all our listeners an excellent year 2025 and we love you all.
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