In Moscow's Shadows 125: Putin's Coming Back! And So's the Cold War?
Dec 10, 2023
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The podcast discusses Putin's surprise announcement to stand for re-election and analyzes the motives behind it. It explores the potential threat Russia poses to NATO and debates the timeline for Russia's rearmament. The chapter also highlights the challenges of military training and mobilization and emphasizes the need to understand Russia's intentions and address threats in a realistic and timely manner.
49:45
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Quick takeaways
Putin's announcement of his re-election was strategically timed and presented to maintain his image and avoid backlash.
The upcoming election campaign will emphasize continuity and stability while addressing topics such as the economy and Russia's future vision.
Deep dives
Putin's Re-election Announcement
In a surprise announcement, Putin revealed his decision to stand for re-election at a gala event. The timing and manner of the announcement were carefully orchestrated to avoid generating a backlash and to maintain Putin's image. The state media played a significant role in quickly spreading the news and creating a sense of support for Putin's candidacy. The decision to stand for re-election reflects Putin's belief that he is the only suitable leader for the country, especially during these uncertain times. The upcoming election campaign is expected to emphasize continuity and stability, while addressing issues such as the economy and Russia's future vision.
The Choreographed Event and Image
The announcement of Putin's re-election was done in a low-key manner, avoiding a grand spectacle. The intention was to present it as a spontaneous decision while capitalizing on the power of state media to ensure broad coverage. This approach may stem from a recognition of Putin fatigue among the population and an attempt to downplay his image as a desperate autocrat clinging to power. By framing his decision as a duty rather than a personal desire, Putin aims to project a sense of selflessness and a belief that no one else is capable of leading the country in these challenging times.
Implications for the Election Campaign
The election campaign is likely to focus on emphasizing the importance of leadership continuity and stability in uncertain times. While the military was prominently featured during Putin's announcement, the campaign itself is expected to be fought in more civilian terms, with discussions on topics such as the economy and Russia's future. The involvement of different interest groups, including cultural, sports, and political figures, in the initiative group supporting Putin's nomination aims to create a sense of a national movement, appealing to ordinary citizens and demonstrating broad support for Putin.
The Russian Threat and Western Response
The German Council for Foreign Relations report highlights Russia's continuing threat to NATO and emphasizes the need for Western countries to be prepared for a full-scale war. It calls on Germany to make significant improvements in its defense capabilities and warns of a race against time for NATO to complete its repositioning before Russia reaches full war capability. However, it is important to critically analyze such assumptions and consider the different security threats Russia poses. Rather than solely focusing on military rearmament, Western countries should also address other challenges, such as covert subversion and the need for a swift response to potential Russian intentions.
So, surprise, surprise, Putin's standing for re-election. A few thoughts on how it was announced and the vibe around it, before I look at 'Preventing the Next War,' a report from DGAP, the German Council on Foreign Relations, that believes Russia could rearm within 6 years of the end of the war, and that if NATO has not already armed itself to match by then, it would invade. I'm not convinced -- but think it is crucial to have the debate.
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