Alex Andreou and Naomi Smith opolling guru Peter Kellner, dissect opinions polls on Trump's second, first, 100 Days in the White House, the result of the Canadian election, and preview the local and mayoral elections in England.

Plus 'Wokey Dokey' and 'Grin And Share It'.

“What Mark Carney did was to come close to monopolising the centre/centre-left vote. Which, of course, might have echoes for what Starmer needs to do here. Labour is losing many more votes to the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and the SNP. Labour is suffering, in large measure, because the progressive vote is fragmenting.”

“Businesses live in an uncertain world, but it’s what I would call ‘ordered uncertainty’. We don’t know whether interest rates will be half a point up or down in a year, but we know how the decision will be taken, the forces at work. There is a rational basis for the array of possibilities. With Trump, there is irrational uncertainty.”

“We may, in some local and mayoral contests, which are four- or five-way splits, see very strange results; people elected on a quarter of the vote. In 48 hours, when we know all the figures, they may be the greatest argument that electoral reformers have ever had.”

“Brexit trade barriers were going to defy the laws of economics. And didn't. And in a surprise to precisely no one, except maybe Navarro, the same is happening in the US.”

“If I were to try and find a silver lining to Trump’s first 100 days, it is this: Our time on this Earth is limited, so we should all be thankful to someone that makes it feel SO. MUCH. LONGER.”

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CALLS TO ACTION

VOTE!

Also, subscribe to Peter Kellner's substack here.

Also, sign up for the Europe Day lunchtime zoom here - 9 May at 12:30.

GRIN AND SHARE IT

An new home for an old olive tree - read about it here.

Our bookshop including many of the books we have featured can be found at ⁠uk.bookshop.org/shop/quietriot⁠

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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell. A Cooler Heads production, in cahoots with Sandstone Global.

Email us at ⁠quietriotpod@gmail.com⁠. Or visit our website ⁠www.quietriotpod.com⁠.

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Attacking Assumptions