a16z Podcast: Not If, But How -- When Technology is Inevitable (with Kevin Kelly)
Jun 7, 2016
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In this engaging discussion, Kevin Kelly, the former founding editor of Wired magazine and author of "The Inevitable," explores the relentless advance of technology. He reveals at least 12 unavoidable forces shaping our digital future. Kelly advocates for embracing these changes, emphasizing how societies like Singapore and China thrive through smart regulations. The conversation also dives into the transformative potential of AI and virtual reality, envisioning a world where technology enhances, rather than replaces, human creativity.
Embracing inevitable technological trends, like AI and the sharing economy, allows societies to adapt and thrive rather than resist change.
The transition from an internet of information to an internet of experiences, particularly through VR, is set to reshape communication and social interaction.
Deep dives
Long-Term Technological Trends
The discussion highlights the significance of recognizing and embracing long-term technological trends that have been developing over decades. These trends, such as Moore's Law, indicate that while the specifics of technology may be unpredictable, the overarching direction is clear and can be anticipated. For example, while the internet's existence was inevitable, the nature of its commercialization was not predetermined. Emphasizing the importance of acceptance, the conversation suggests that individuals and societies should adapt educational and political landscapes to prepare for these inevitable changes rather than resist them.
The Inevitable Forces of Decentralization
Decentralization and sharing economy models, like Uber and Airbnb, are explored as unstoppable trends that are reshaping industries and societal behaviors. The conversation argues that attempts to outlaw or dismiss these emerging business models are futile, as their presence is a reflection of larger forces at play. Countries like Singapore and China exemplify how proactive national policies can lead to advancements in education and technology adoption. By acknowledging that these trends will continue to evolve, societies can create smarter regulations to work alongside them, positing that adaptation will yield more benefit than resistance.
The Role of AI and Filtering Technologies
Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as an inevitable technological force that will fundamentally alter industries and behaviors. The talk delves into the surging significance of filtering technologies that can help manage the overwhelming abundance of information generated in the digital age. As attention becomes increasingly scarce, individuals will rely on various kinds of filters to navigate through the noise, leading to advancements in AI that facilitate this process. The goal is to optimize user experience by educating individuals on how to effectively engage with AI, acknowledging potential filter bubbles while striving for balance.
Cultural Shifts Towards Interactivity and Experience
The conversation explores the transition from traditional information consumption to more interactive experiences facilitated by virtual reality (VR) and related technologies. As VR continues to evolve and improve, its capacity for providing a sense of presence and social interaction is anticipated to reshape how people communicate and work together. The notion that VR could become a primary mode of social engagement challenges previous assumptions about technology isolating individuals. Emphasizing the immersive experiences that these technologies can create, the discussion reflects on the potential for deeper connections among people in virtual environments.
Technology has always been a force in how we live, work, and play; only now it's accelerating and compounding in unexpected ways. But just because we don't know exactly what form that tech will take (sharing homes on Airbnb or cars with Lyft and Uber for example) doesn't mean that the larger force at play (e.g., sharing) didn't have a certain predictability to it. It was almost an inherent -- and inevitable -- outcome of the very nature of the internet itself. And there are at least 12 such inevitable technological forces, shares author Kevin Kelly in his new book Inevitable.
As we now move from an "internet of information" to an "internet of experiences" -- with virtual and augmented reality, AI-as-a-service, and more -- we need to accept the inevitable. Instead of fighting tech outcomes (things like tracking for example), we need to expect it, accept it, plan for it, and civilize it. It's not just about policy and laws, though (which should follow tech use); it's about new business opportunities (imagine if the music industry had bypassed its DRM phase!), cultural change, and new opportunities for humanity, too.
Especially as the future of work changes. But productivity -- and even some forms of creativity -- is for the robots, argues Kelly in this episode of the a16z Podcast (where he is joined by a16z's Chris Dixon, Kyle Russell, and Sonal Chokshi). The irony is that while technology is inevitable, we humans are best suited for what is uncertain, inefficient, and full of failure. Machines may answer, but we will ask the questions. It's not just what we want, but what technology needs.
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