The podcast discusses Americans' reactions to the war in Israel, the shifting sympathies in the Israel-Palestine conflict, and the effectiveness of political ads on voter opinion of Trump. They also explore the ongoing speaker race in Washington and recommend a podcast called Reclaimed the Forgotten League.
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Quick takeaways
American support for Israel has increased among Democrats and independents following the recent conflict with Hamas.
Ads targeting Trump's personal traits were more effective than those attacking his specific issues.
The scramble for the Speaker of the House position in the Republican Party has caused division and tensions among lawmakers.
Deep dives
Republican Caucus Struggles to Choose a Speaker
The Republican caucus is facing difficulties in choosing a new speaker. After Kevin McCarthy was ousted, a battle ensued between Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan for the position. Scalise initially had more support, but as the process continued, it became clear that he would not secure the necessary votes. Scalise ultimately withdrew from the race. Attention has now turned to Jim Jordan, who has a reputation for challenging Republican leaders and pushing hardline tactics. However, there is division within the party, with many moderate Republicans and swing district lawmakers expressing concerns about Jordan's candidacy. The spotlight is on Jordan, but it remains to be seen if he can secure the votes needed to become speaker.
Efforts to Weaken Trump in the Republican Primary
A conservative political action committee called 'Win It Back' conducted a poll-based research experiment to explore ways to weaken Trump in the Republican primary. They found that attacks on Trump's conservative credentials on specific issues were ineffective, while ads featuring Republicans expressing concerns about Trump's ability to beat President Biden and his pattern of attacking conservative leaders were successful in lowering support for Trump. Although the PAC spent millions on these ads and ran experiments, they concluded that it would be difficult to have a major impact at that stage in the race. The focus has now shifted to Jim Jordan as a potential House Speaker candidate.
The Partisan Divide in American Support for Israel
American support for Israel has markedly increased across numerous polls, particularly amongst Democrats and independents, following the recent conflict between Israel and Hamas. While Republicans have maintained high support for Israel, Democrats have shown a shift in their sympathies towards Israel, with polling indicating a higher percentage siding with Israelis after the attack compared to before. Elite messaging and trusted leaders have a significant role in shaping public opinion on foreign policy. However, it is important to note that a considerable portion of Americans, across party lines, is unsure or does not have firmly held opinions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The partisan divide on this issue is complex and subject to evolving attitudes influenced by various factors.
The impact of attack ads on Trump's support
Attack ads targeting Trump on specific issues did not decrease support for him and even provoked a backlash, with some people becoming more defensive of Trump. Voters already have strong opinions about Trump, and these ads did not present new arguments against him. Ads that highlighted Trump's personal traits, such as his self-centeredness, were more successful as they provided a new perspective rather than new information. This suggests that voters prioritize their perception of Trump as a strong leader, focusing less on specific issues.
The lack of unity and leadership in the Republican Party
The current scramble for the Speaker of the House position in the Republican Party has generated anger and division among lawmakers. Different factions, such as the Jordan, Scalise, and McCarthy camps, are vying for power, with each group undermining the others. The absence of a unifying figure like Paul Ryan complicates the situation, as potential candidates may struggle to rally enough support. Additionally, personal and strategic differences, along with concerns about the direction of the party, contribute to the tense atmosphere in Congress.
In this installment of the podcast, the crew looks at the latest polling on how Americans are reacting to the Hamas attacks in Israel and ongoing war in Gaza. They also check in on the speaker’s race in Washington and look at a polling experiment conducted by a conservative PAC hoping to prevent former President Donald Trump from winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.