The Syrian Civil War Reignites

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Dec 4, 2024

A dramatic resurgence of the Syrian civil war is explored, focusing on Abu Mohammad al-Julani's recent offensive and its implications for regional stability. The podcast dives into al-Julani's evolution from Al-Qaeda affiliate to a significant player in the conflict, dissecting the complex web of factions including the Assad regime, Kurdish forces, and foreign influences. Insights into shifting alliances, brutal tactics, and the ramifications of ceasefire negotiations shed light on the precarious future of Syria and its intricate geopolitical landscape.

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ANECDOTE

Julani's Path to Jihad

Abu Muhammad al-Julani, HTS leader, was born in Riyadh to a formerly Nasserist, PLO-supporting father.
Radicalized by the Second Intifada, Julani joined the Iraqi resistance and was imprisoned in Abu Ghraib.

INSIGHT

Julani's Strategic Shift

Julani's time in Iraq, including imprisonment with Baghdadi, shaped his strategic thinking.
Possibly disagreeing with Zarqawi's methods, Julani aimed for a localized, Syrian-focused approach.

INSIGHT

Julani's Pragmatism

Julani's pragmatism is compared to Abdul Hakim al-Hajj's transition in Libya.
He prioritized Syrian issues over global jihad, potentially as early as 2011.

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EMERGENCY EPISODE

In another hugely dramatic turn in the Middle East, the Syrian civil war has reignited. On November 27th 2024, Abu Mohammad al-Julani’s HTS reconquered huge swathes of the North West of the country, including the key city of Aleppo. Conflicted is here with an emergency explainer episode to try and decipher exactly what has gone on in Syria over the past week, and indeed the past decade, to give you the context you need to understand it.

Thomas and Aimen are going back to a country that has felt dormant and out of the news for years, but where conflict has now reignited. We’ll go back to the emergence of Julani as a force initially within Al-Qaeda, tracing his history to explain the complicated dynamics at play in Syria’s civil war – we’ll discuss the Nusra Front, its transformation into HTS and break with Al-Qaeda, plus more background on everyone from the Kurds to the assortment of other rebel groups, to Hezbollah, Iran and more… And now, with a temperamental ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel in force, we’ll examine just how Julani took his chance to seize key areas from the weakened Assad regime.

But what are the larger geopolitical forces at play? How will regional powers respond? And does this spell the end for Assad?

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