The President's Daily Brief PDB Situation Report | December 27th, 2025: Why This Year of War Rewrote the Ukraine Playbook & Asia’s Strategic Crossroads
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Dec 27, 2025 George Barros, the Russia team lead at the Institute for the Study of War, dives deep into the evolving dynamics of the Ukraine conflict. He discusses Russia's limited territorial gains, the complexities of negotiation tactics, and the potential future of U.S. support for Ukraine. Transitioning to Asia, the conversation shifts to China's strategic maneuvers and the U.S. response under the Trump administration, evaluating the risks and opportunities in the region. Barros adds cautious optimism for Ukrainian counterattacks while highlighting the importance of solid regional alliances.
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Slow Gains, Big Narrative Push
- Russia's 2025 battlefield gains were tiny, under 1% of Ukrainian territory, showing incremental slogging, not collapse.
- George Barros argues this slow advance undermines Russia's claim of imminent Ukrainian military catastrophe.
War Is Stretching Russia's Economy
- The war is inflicting mounting economic and demographic strains on Russia, including gold sales and ~20% inflation.
- Barros warns these compounding costs limit Moscow's ability to sustain long multi-year offensives.
Moscow's Negotiating Playbook
- Barros says Russia isn't negotiating in good faith and demands Ukrainian capitulation, rejecting key security guarantees.
- He argues U.S. pressure on Kyiv, paired with Russian intransigence, skews perceptions that Ukraine blocks peace.