From Convergence to Confrontation: Trump’s India Gambit

For a quarter century, Washington policymakers made a strategic bet on India premised on the belief that shared values, shared interests, and a shared strategic convergence in Asia would bind these two countries together as ‘natural allies’ in the twenty-first century. All of this optimistic talk came crashing down to Earth a few months ago with the Trump administration’s decision to slap 25 percent tariffs on Indian exports. This was exacerbated by a second decision to add an additional 25 percent tariff on India for its import of Russia oil. Taken together, these policy measures plunged U.S.-India relations into their most significant crisis since the late 1990s and the era of U.S. sanctions on India in the wake of the latter’s nuclear tests.How did we get here? Where are we now? And where might we be going? These are the questions Milan takes up on this week’s show with guest Ashley J. Tellis. Tellis is the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and is well-known to Grand Tamasha listeners as one of the sanest, wisest voices on South Asia and U.S.-India relations, more specifically. Milan and Ashley discuss the policy of U.S. “strategic altruism” toward India, the ongoing trade negotiations between the United States and India, and Modi’s recent visit to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in China. Plus, the two discuss the latest turn in U.S.-Pakistan relations and whether the thaw in China-India relations is sustainable. 

Episode notes:

1. Robert D. Blackwill and Ashley J. Tellis, “The India Dividend: New Delhi Remains Washington’s Best Hope in Asia,” Foreign Affairs 98, no. 5 (September/October 2019): 173-183.

2. Ashley J. Tellis, “India’s Great-Power Delusions: How New Delhi’s Grand Strategy Thwarts Its Grand Ambitions,” Foreign Affairs 104, no. 4 (July/August 2025): 52-67.

3. Lisa Curtis, Dhruva Jaishankar, Nirupama Rao, and Ashley J. Tellis, “What Kind of Great Power Will India Be? Debating New Delhi’s Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs 104, no. 5 (September/October 2025): 186-195.

4. Ashley J. Tellis, “America’s Bad Bet on India: New Delhi Won’t Side With Washington Against Beijing,” Foreign Affairs, May 1, 2023.

5. Milan Vaishnav, “How India Can Placate America,” Foreign Affairs, July 16, 2025.

6. “Trade Wars: Trump Targets India (with Sadanand Dhume and Tanvi Madan),” Grand Tamasha, August 12, 2025.

7. “What Kind of Great Power Will India Become? (with Ashley J. Tellis),” Grand Tamasha, July 2, 2025.