The Flip Side Will tariffs trigger a recession?
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Apr 11, 2025 Tariffs have stirred up discussions on the potential for a recession by 2025. Experts analyze how immigration policy impacts job creation and overall economic growth. There’s a deep dive into how tariffs influence consumer prices and inflation. The complexities of consumer behavior amid trade tensions reveal economic resilience. The ongoing trade war's implications on market fluctuations and proposed tax cuts are also examined as strategies to counter recession risks. Buckle up for an insightful exploration of today’s economic landscape!
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Recession Concerns
- The U.S. economy's potential recession is a major concern after recent market declines.
- This concern has intensified due to the tariffs and changes since the beginning of April.
Immigration's Economic Impact
- Reduced immigration, primarily in low-productivity sectors, impacts U.S. job growth.
- This labor supply shock, including ICE sweeps, contributes a 0.35-0.5% hit to GDP.
Tariff Impact on GDP
- The average tariff on U.S. imports increased significantly, impacting consumer prices and potentially GDP.
- A portion of the tariff increase is absorbed by companies and currency effects, but the dollar hasn't rallied as expected.