Volatility Views Volatility Views 663: 2026 VIX Outlook — Face Ripper Trades & Crystal Ball Winners
It is a New Year in the volatility markets! Host Mark Longo is joined by "Dr. VIX" Russell Rhoads and Mark Sebastian of Option Pit to break down a wild 2025 and peer into the crystal ball for 2026. From the "tariff tantrums" and "taper tantrums" of last year to the rise of 0DTE options and the recent "face ripper" ratio spreads, the team analyzes why the VIX median stayed elevated even without major explosive events. Plus, the moment you've been waiting for: we crown the 2025 Crystal Ball Hall of Fame winners and launch the official 2026 contest!
What's Inside this Episode:
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The Volatility Review: A deep dive into the 2025 "Mad Vol Year." Why was the median VIX so much higher than normal?
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The 0DTE Impact: How zero-day options are reshaping the term structure and long-dated premium.
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VIX Face Rippers: Russell breaks down the bizarre ratio call spreads hitting the tape and what they signal for January and April volatility.
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The Crystal Ball Hall of Fame: We announce the four winners who nailed the 14.95 year-end VIX close within 0.1pt.
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2026 Predictions: The crew places their bets for the coming year. Can we see a sub-10 VIX, or will the midterms push us toward 17.76?
Key Timestamps:
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[00:00] Introduction and "Happy New Year" Cutoff Debate
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[07:15] 2025 Year-in-Review: The high of 60 and the 14-handle reality
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[15:40] The "Tariff Tantrum" and Fixed Income Volatility
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[22:10] Term Structure Analysis: Why the current curve is "poison" for ETP longs
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[31:45] Russell's Weekly Rundown: Explaining the "Face Ripper" trades
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[45:10] Crystal Ball 2025 Winners Revealed
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[52:30] 2026 Official Predictions & Closing Levels
Connect with the Guest Experts:
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Russell Rhoads: Follow on X @RussellRhoads
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Mark Sebastian: Visit OptionPit.com or follow on X @OptionPit
Support the Network: This episode is brought to you by Tastytrade. See why Investopedia named them the best broker for options in 2024. Visit tastytrade.com/podcasts to learn more.