The MeidasTouch Podcast Trump GETS VERY BAD DATA on Election After LOSING DEBATE (Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier Interview)
Sep 12, 2024
Join Simon Rosenberg, head of the Hopium Chronicles and expert in election data, alongside Tom Bonier, senior advisor at Target Smart, as they dissect the latest polling trends following a recent Trump debate. They discuss the 'Harris effect,' noting increased voter registration among young women and voters of color. The duo sheds light on shifts in political dynamics influenced by the Dobbs decision and warns about misleading polling tactics. Plus, they introduce a transparent voter data dashboard aimed at empowering and informing the electorate against misinformation.
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Post-Debate Data Overview
- Current data suggests Kamala Harris leads nationally by 2-3 points, mirroring the Congressional generic ballot.
- Democrats are closer to 270 electoral votes and hold advantages in fundraising, volunteers, and enthusiasm.
The Harris Effect
- The "Harris effect" is boosting voter registration among young people, women, and voters of color, similar to the "Dobbs effect."
- These increases are substantial, with young women of color registering at triple the rate seen four years prior.
The Swift Effect
- Following the debate and Taylor Swift's call to register, voter registration attempts quadrupled.
- This "Swift effect" on voter engagement is even larger than the post-Dobbs surge in 2022.