Supply Shock Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Over | Matt Hougan
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Aug 5, 2025 
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, discusses the breakdown of Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle. He predicts a shift toward smoother market patterns influenced by ETFs and regulatory clarity. Hougan contrasts the nostalgia for boom-bust cycles with the current environment, arguing this time truly is different. The conversation emphasizes Bitcoin’s transformation into an institutional asset and the implications of evolving regulations, reshaping how we view its future trajectory.
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Four-Year Cycle Is Weakening
- Bitcoin's historic four-year cycle driven by halving is weakening as halving's impact halves each cycle.
- Institutional adoption and regulation are stronger multi-year forces reshaping Bitcoin's future cycles.
Institutional Flow Dilutes Psychology
- Market psychology around Bitcoin's cycle may be offset by slow but strong institutional buying.
- Crypto does not feel euphoric like previous bubbles, indicating a more mature phase.
Bitcoin's Evolution Under US Government
- US government's embrace of Bitcoin makes it evolutionary, not revolutionary.
- Bitcoin constrains government money printing but won't replace the existing financial system overnight.