The Michael Shermer Show

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Depopulation: The Silent Global Emergency

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Aug 30, 2025

Guest

Dean Spears

In a captivating discussion, economist Dean Spears, an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin and founding executive director of r.i.c.e, delves into the complexities of global population dynamics. He reveals how fears of overpopulation have shifted to concerns about declining birth rates. Spears challenges misconceptions about zero-sum economics, emphasizing the link between population and innovation. He explores cultural attitudes toward reproduction, government family planning policies, and the societal implications of a shrinking population, offering a refreshing perspective on parenting in a tech-driven future.

01:16:25

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INSIGHT

Depopulation Is The Likely Path

Global depopulation is the most likely future because birth rates have fallen for centuries while mortality fell faster.
Once births fall below replacement and stay there, population decline becomes persistent and exponential.

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INSIGHT

Why Replacement Fertility Exceeds Two

Replacement fertility exceeds two because of child mortality and slightly uneven sex ratios at birth.
Long-term replacement estimates are roughly 2.05–2.1, not exactly two.

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INSIGHT

Humanity May Be Mostly Complete

About 120 billion people have lived and ~8 billion are alive now; future births could be ~30 billion if fertility stays below replacement.
That implies humanity might already be four-fifths complete in total births.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

The Dark History of Eugenics and Population Control

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Population Dynamics: History and Future

04:56 • 24min

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Reproductive Strategies and Their Impact on Generational Development

28:58 • 2min

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Population Dynamics and Human Progress

30:34 • 34min

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The Complexity of Population Stabilization and Birth Rates

01:04:22 • 2min

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The Future of Parenting in a Post-Scarcity World

01:06:43 • 10min

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Economist Dean Spears explains the forces driving global population change, from past fears of overpopulation to today’s concerns about declining birth rates.

He contrasts the perspectives of biologists and economists on population growth and highlights the role of human ideas and innovation in sustaining progress. Spears also discusses misconceptions about zero-sum economics, the links between population, health, and economic well-being, and the rise of anti-natalism.

The conversation covers population size and environmental concerns, government policies on family planning, and why cultural attitudes toward reproduction may be as important as policy in addressing the challenges of a shrinking population.

Dean Spears is an economist, demographer, and associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin. Spears is a founding executive director of r.i.c.e, (a research institute for compassionate economics), a nonprofit that works to promote children’s health, growth, and survival in rural India. Together with Michael Geruso, he is the author of the new book After the Spike: Population, Progress, and the Case for People.

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