Tor Svelland, of Svelland Capital, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the global macro forces driving global commodity markets. They discuss how the commodity markets have evolved over the years, as banks have scaled back trading and quant firms and CTAs have become more prominent players. Tor outlines the key reasons he believes commodity markets are in the midst of a super cycle, identifies where he sees the strongest opportunities and discusses what the commodity markets are currently suggesting about the state of global demand. They discuss how the global energy transition, de-globalization and nearshoring, rising geopolitical risk and increased defence spending will impact markets. They also delve into the periodic mis-pricings Tor sees between equities, particularly technology stocks, and commodities given their rising electricity demand.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:26 - Introduction to Tor Svelland
06:18 - How have commodity markets evolved?
09:19 - More opportunities in commodity markets?
11:32 - Why Tor started his own firm
14:15 - Tor's outlook for the commodity markets
17:10 - What has driven the flat trend in the major industrial markets?
20:09 - Are we in a super cycle?
22:55 - Translating trends into trades
24:47 - Which markets will benefit from the energy transition?
26:55 - A slow transition
31:14 - The temperature of the global economy
35:21 - Where will we see signs of recession?
39:13 - Is disinflation a major trend?
41:14 - How extreme can it get?
42:42 - How will Europe meet its energy demands going forward??
45:13 - How the defense spending will impact markets
47:07 - Taking advantage of the spikes in markets
51:06 - How volatility sellers affect markets
52:56 - Additional observations in the commodity markets
55:18 - Putting it all together
56:52 - Why has gold miners been so slow?
58:27 - Private capital taking over?
59:20 - Advice for other investors
01:00:30 - Thanks for listening
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