Episode 2299: Jill Kastner explains why everything old is new again in international politics
Jan 11, 2025
auto_awesome
In this engaging discussion, Jill Kastner, an independent scholar and historian based in London, delves into the resurgence of historical power plays in international politics. She reveals how subversion, a strategy employed since ancient times, remains relevant in today's geopolitical struggles. Kastner highlights the delicate balance between diplomacy and conflict, using examples from Thucydides to modern tensions over Ukraine and Taiwan. She argues that subversive tactics emerge when war seems too costly, reminding us that history often repeats itself in intriguing ways.
Jill Kastner argues that current international tensions reflect a return to historical great power dynamics, emphasizing the enduring strategy of state-sponsored subversion.
The debate around the morality of subversion reveals that it can be perceived differently depending on the political context, complicating international diplomacy.
Deep dives
The Return to Great Power Politics
The dynamics of international relations are shifting back toward a great power world where nations like the United States, Russia, and China hold significant influence. This shift draws parallels to historic great power politics, suggesting that the inherent tactics and goals associated with such politics have not changed over time. The notion of subversion, historically ingrained in the interactions between states, is re-emerging as a strategy to navigate international challenges. The discussion emphasizes that the past few decades of unipolar dominance by the U.S. was an anomaly, and the current multipolar landscape is more reflective of traditional global structures.
Understanding Subversive Actions
Subversion is characterized as a fundamental tool of statecraft utilized by nations when diplomatic efforts fail. The history of subversive activities, such as propaganda and disinformation, shows that these tactics have been present across various eras and are not unique to any single conflict or time period. By framing subversion as a legitimate means of achieving foreign policy objectives, a cost-benefit analysis emerges, allowing states to engage in covert actions that avoid direct conflict. This pragmatic approach underscores that subversion can be both a strategic choice and a reflection of frustrations in diplomacy.
The Role of Morality in Subversion
The morality associated with state actions has become a complex issue, particularly in democratic countries like the U.S., where public opinion and moral imperatives shape foreign policy decisions. Subversion might be labeled as immoral on one side while being justified as a moral endeavor on another, highlighting the fluid nature of these concepts. For instance, actions such as democracy promotion can be viewed as subversion depending on the perspective of the parties involved. This duality generates a relationship where one nation's moral stance can be another's cause for conflict, complicating international diplomacy.
Navigating Contemporary Conflicts
In discussing current geopolitical tensions, the focus remains on employing subversive tactics strategically to avoid open conflict while addressing threats like those posed by Russia in Ukraine and China regarding Taiwan. A comprehensive approach that combines defense, deterrence, and diplomacy is crucial in this context, ensuring preparedness against potential subversion efforts. Recognizing vulnerabilities at home and remaining vigilant against external influences can help nations better navigate the complexities of international relations. Overall, the return of great power politics suggests a need for countries to engage in subversion as a practical tool, without romanticizing or vilifying its application.
Everything old is new again in international politics. According to Jill Kastner, co-author of A Measure Short of War: A Brief History of Great Power Subversion, today's international tensions over Ukraine, Taiwan and Greenland mark a return to historical normalcy after a brief period of global American unipolarity. Kastner explains that subversion—defined as hostile or unwanted action on a rival's territory—has been a constant tool of statecraft throughout history. She presents subversion as a rational choice between diplomacy and war, where states make cost-benefit calculations about their actions. Citing historical examples from Thucydides’ Athens and Elizabeth I's England to modern-day geopolitics, she explains how nations use subversive tactics when diplomatic channels fail, but war seems too costly. Let’s hope she’s right when it comes to heading off a Chinese war over Taiwan or an American invasion of Greenland.
Dr Jill Kastner is an independent scholar and historian based in London. Her work focuses on international relations from the Cold War to the present, with an emphasis on intelligence and subversive activities both covert and overt. Jill completed her PhD at Harvard in 1999 under the guidance of Ernest May and Philip Zelikow before joining the Presidential Recordings Project at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center for Public Affairs. She has contributed book chapters on various Cold War crises, including Suez and Berlin, and written for The Nation and Foreign Affairs. She served as the executive editor and collaborator for Hope and History: A Memoir of Tumultuous Times, the political memoir of Ambassador William J. vanden Heuvel. She is currently collaborating with William C. Wohlforth on a book about the history of subversion, due out with Oxford University Press next year. Prior to her PhD, Jill worked as a television news producer on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. She is a member of Chatham House, the Pilgrims of the US/UK, and the Harvard Club of New York.
Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.
Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode