The State of the Economy for May 2025

Tariffs and stock market movements remained top of mind for consumers in May. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—showed modest improvement overall. Expectations for business conditions and the labor market inched up but stayed in pessimistic territory. The key bright spot was income expectations, which moved into positive territory, supported by a stronger stock market and early signs of progress on a trade deal with China. 

 

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist and Leader of the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center at The Conference Board, sits down with Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, and Erik Lundh, Senior Global Economist, to discuss the outlook for the US GDP, whether consumers are worried about a recession, and how the Fed might handle the current uncertainty. 

 

00:38 Consumer Confidence in May  

01:34 Impact of Tariffs and Financial Markets  

04:08 Consumer Expectations and Spending  

08:21 Inflation and Financial Concerns  

13:03 Changes in US and Global Economic Forecasts  

21:10 Factors Influencing Future Economic Outlook  

22:46 Conclusion and Farewell