Shermer and Taleblu discuss Iran's role in the Israel-Hamas conflict, the translation debate on Iran's intentions towards Israel, the spread of Sharia law, the effectiveness of economic sanctions against Iran, the state of American democracy, the complexities of the Iran-Israel conflict, and the trustworthiness of news outlets in the new media space.
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Quick takeaways
Iran's anti-Israel ideology stems from Ayatollah Khomeini, driving their support for proxies to wage asymmetrical warfare against Israel.
The Iranian people desire democratic governance but face brutal suppression by the oppressive regime, requiring a careful balance of support.
The state of democracies worldwide requires understanding geopolitical realities and committing to consistent policies to support democratic movements.
Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons poses a major concern, with the potential for chain proliferation in the region.
Deep dives
The divided history of Iran
Iran has a stark divide between pre and post-revolutionary periods. Before the 1979 revolution, Iran was a South Korea or Japan of its time, with economic progress and a close partnership with the US. It even recognized Israel after its founding. However, since the revolution, Iran has witnessed a decline in social, economic, and political rights. The current regime, led by Ayatollah Khomeini, holds an ideological narrative that views Israel as a colonial outpost, leading to a desire to eliminate Israel. The regime has pursued this goal through arming and supporting various proxies, such as Hamas and Houthis, to launch attacks against Israel. The Iranian people have a strong desire for democracy, social justice, and representative governance, as well as a government that prioritizes Iran's interests. They have engaged in protests, but have faced brutal crackdowns by the regime. Despite the challenges, the Iranian people continue to push for change and stand against the Islamic Republic's oppressive rule.
Iran's anti-Israel ideology
Iran's anti-Israel ideology traces back to Ayatollah Khomeini, who merged old-world anti-Semitic slurs with new-world anti-Israel themes. The regime views Israel as a colonial outpost and seeks its elimination. This ideology has driven Iran's support for various proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah, to wage asymmetrical warfare against Israel. The regime believes that Israel's defensive capabilities and its relationship with the US are not sustainable, leading them to exploit weak central authority across the Middle East to create and co-opt armed groups to target Israel. Iran has the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East and utilizes armed groups in multiple jurisdictions to project its influence. Their goal is to weaken Israel politically and militarily, with the hope of undermining Arab-Israeli normalization and isolating Israel internationally. The regime also aims to shift international attention away from Iran and towards Israel, to prevent regional countries from coming together against Iran's destabilizing activities.
Democracy and the challenges in Iran
The Iranian people have a complex history with democratic movements. They have a strong desire for democratic governance and social progress. However, their protests and calls for reform have often been brutally suppressed by the regime. The Iranian people have witnessed a significant decline in social and economic rights under the Islamic Republic. The regime's mismanagement of the country's resources, its support for terrorism, and its corruption have exacerbated the people's frustration. Despite the challenges, the Iranian people continue to protest and push for change, seeking not only democratic governance but also economic and social justice. The divide between state and society in Iran is significant, as the regime's actions do not reflect the aspirations of the Iranian people. The situation in Iran requires a careful balance of supporting the people's desire for democracy while avoiding actions that could empower the regime or escalate violence.
Assessing democracy globally
The state of democracies around the world is multilayered. While there are concerns about the rise of populism and authoritarianism in some regions, it is important to consider the specific contexts and dynamics at play. Evaluating the health of democracies requires examining the interplay between ideology, geostrategic interests, and historical factors. The United States and other democracies need to prioritize their limited resources and political capital to effectively support democratic movements and uphold their values. This requires understanding the geopolitical realities, committing to consistent policies, and avoiding counterproductive actions. While democracies face challenges, the desire for freedom and progressive change persists among affected populations, calling for continued efforts to support their aspirations.
Iran's Weapons System and Proxy Warfare
Iran has developed a vast array of weapons systems, including missiles and drones, to offset the conventional military power of its adversaries. These weapons, often supplied to proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, pose a significant challenge to the United States and its allies in the region. Iran has perfected the art of low-cost, high-return on investment weaponry, exploiting gaps in export control architectures and acquiring components through third-party countries. This has allowed Iran to build the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, which it uses to surround Israel with threats from multiple directions. Additionally, Iran has been able to proliferate its weapons to other actors in the region, further complicating the security landscape. Military force, such as the counter-ISIS mission, has shown some success in limiting the spread of these weapons, but a comprehensive strategy is needed to address the larger challenges posed by Iran's weapons system and proxy warfare.
Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and the Danger of Escalation
Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons presents a major concern for global security. While Iran has repeatedly claimed that its nuclear program is peaceful, there are legitimate worries about its intentions, given its past threats to wipe Israel off the map. Iran's possession of nuclear weapons would supercharge an already dangerous scenario, as it is emboldened by asymmetrical assets and its assessment of American resolve. The challenge is to deter Iran from using nuclear weapons, as traditional nuclear deterrence assumes that the other side wants to preserve its country and avoid destruction. However, with the messianic ideology of certain factions within Iran's regime, there is a concern that nuclear weapons could be seen as a means to effectuate their goals, even if it means sacrificing their own nation. The potential for a chain proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region further underscores the need to prevent Iran from acquiring such capabilities.
The Role of Sanctions and the Enablers of Iran
Economic sanctions have been a key tool in pressuring Iran, and they have had some impact in curbing its activities. However, Iran has been able to find ways to adapt and mitigate the effects of sanctions, especially with the support of its enablers, such as China and Russia. China, in particular, has been a significant importer of Iranian oil, providing crucial revenue to the Iranian regime. The support from these great power competitors undermines the effectiveness of sanctions and complicates efforts to isolate Iran. It highlights the need for a comprehensive approach that goes beyond sanctions alone and takes into account the wider geopolitical dynamics involving Iran's enablers.
In-person event next month: https://skeptic.com/event
Shermer and Taleblu discuss: • Iran and Hamas • Hamas and Israel • Does Iran really want to wipe Israel off the map? • Islam, Islamism, Jihadism • Sharia Law • Hamas, Hezbollah, and terrorism in the Middle East • Would Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) work with Iran? • Do economic sanctions work against Iran? • Trump’s strategies in the Middle East: what worked, what didn’t and why • the Iran Deal, and why they support terrorists • U.S. support for Israel • Biden Administrations culpability in releasing $16 billion to Iran • how weaker nations can fight stronger nations • the state of democracies in the world • the state of U.S. democracy.
Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) where he focuses on Iranian security and political issues. Behnam previously served as a research fellow and senior Iran analyst at FDD. Prior to his time at FDD, Behnam worked on non-proliferation issues at an arms control think-tank in Washington. Leveraging his subject-matter expertise and native Farsi skills, Behnam has closely tracked a wide range of Iran-related topics including: nuclear non-proliferation, ballistic missiles, sanctions, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the foreign and security policy of the Islamic Republic, and internal Iranian politics. Frequently called upon to brief journalists, congressional staff, and other Washington-audiences, Behnam has also testified before the U.S. Congress and Canadian Parliament.
His analysis has been quoted in the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Fox News, Associated Press, and Agence France-Presse, among others. Additionally, he has contributed to or co-authored articles for Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Fox News, The Hill, War on the Rocks, The National Interest, and U.S. News & World Report. Behnam has appeared on a variety of broadcast programs, including BBC News, Fox News, CBS Interactive, C-SPAN, and Defense News. Behnam earned his MA in International Relations from The University of Chicago, and his BA in International Affairs and Middle East Studies from The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs.
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