Ukrainian Progress: A Breach or a Breakthrough of Russian Lines?
Sep 8, 2023
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Discussion on the state of the Ukrainian offensive, assessing progress and challenges. Analysing the dynamics of the conflict with Russia, defense lines, and shifting balance of power. Exploring areas for improvement in Ukrainian training and future needs. Examining the death and potential future of a prominent figure and their organization. Analyzing the significance of Wagner, a mercenary group, in the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian offensive has made progress in breaching Russian lines but has not yet achieved a breakthrough.
Ukraine needs to focus on maintaining pressure on Russian forces, anticipating infrastructure strikes, and preparing for the next year's offensive.
Deep dives
Current State of Ukraine Offensive
The state of Ukraine's offensive has largely stabilized in the north near Kupian and around Kremina. Ukrainian forces are still trying to take control of Kleshevka south of Bakhmut, a fight that has dragged on for months. In the southern regions, the Wysylka axis had been dormant, but recently Ukrainian forces have started pressuring the Russian military there, launching attacks. The main axis of the offensive has seen Ukrainian forces capture Deneb and push towards Verboe and southeast of Abatune. They are fighting through a robust defensive network to widen the salient and expand their progress.
Change in Dynamic and Assessment of Offensive
There has been a change in the dynamic of the offensive in the past couple of weeks. Ukrainian forces have gained momentum and degraded Russian forces and lines to some extent. The Ukrainian military has deployed reserve brigades, while the Russian military has also deployed reserves, including the 76th Air Assault Division. Though progress has been measured in hundreds of meters, Ukrainian forces have breached the second line of defense. While it is not yet a breakthrough, the conditions are being set for it as Ukrainian forces widen the gap and expand their advances.
Future Considerations and Recommendations
Looking ahead, it is important to consider how Ukraine can maintain pressure on Russian forces heading into the winter and anticipate potential critical infrastructure strikes by Russia. The focus should be on scaling up training efforts, providing sufficient artillery ammunition, improving air defense, and making long-term investments in sustaining Ukraine's war effort. Decision points that need to be addressed include maintaining pressure on Russian forces, preparing for potential Russian mobilization, and starting conversations about the next year's offensive. The West should orient its thinking around a long war and be prepared for various scenarios.