Bloomberg Surveillance Instant Reaction: US Payrolls Marked Down a Record 911,000 in Preliminary Estimate
Sep 9, 2025
The podcast dives into the dramatic downward revision of U.S. payrolls, revealing a loss of 911,000 jobs, raising concerns for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Experts analyze how this shocking statistic impacts the bond market, particularly treasury yields. Geopolitical tensions, including an Israeli strike in Qatar, are examined for their effects on oil prices and inflation projections. The conversation also touches on the challenges of accurate data collection and how this revised outlook shapes economic narratives.
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Revisions Reveal Softer Labor Market
- The benchmark revision showed far weaker employment than previously reported, signaling a softer labor market trend.
- Ira Jersey says this strengthens the case that the Fed will cut rates and could accelerate the timing and frequency of cuts.
Watch The Dot Plot And Fed Guidance
- Expect the Fed to act cautiously and likely deliver a 25bp cut rather than a large 50bp move unless inflation prints surprise downward.
- Watch the updated dot plot and Fed guidance to gauge the pace and size of subsequent cuts.
Past Revisions Don't Dictate Future Yields
- Revisions are backward-looking and don't automatically set future yield trajectories, though they affect trend perceptions.
- Jersey notes markets are forward-looking and the revision may prompt consolidation after a quick rally in yields.