BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations, 2024 Set Up for Public Tech Stocks, & the VC Correction Grinds On | E01
Jan 25, 2024
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Venture capitalist Bill Gurley and investor Brad Gerstner discuss the surge in AI investments, the challenges in AI companies, public software valuations, the future of tech investing, startup challenges, the current economic situation, open vs closed economies, and the impact of free market capitalism on human prosperity.
The impact of free market capitalism and innovation on human prosperity is evident through the acceleration of global GDP per capita over centuries.
Venture capital investing and the tech industry drive progress and economic growth by fostering innovation and risk-taking by entrepreneurs.
The current venture capital correction highlights the importance of adjusting to market realities like valuation and capital availability for long-term success.
Deep dives
Distorted Market and Unusual Transactions in AI Industry
The podcast discusses the potential market distortions in the AI industry due to large-scale transactions and investments by companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Google. These companies have been investing billions of dollars, primarily in the form of credits for cloud services, which are then used by startups to drive their revenues. Critics argue that this unique investment approach results in low-quality revenue and skews valuations. Such transactions also create a barrier for true startups to compete and raise capital. The podcast raises concerns about market distortions, potential price wars, and the difficulty for smaller companies to raise funds without the backing of big tech giants.
Valuation Adjustments and IPOs in the Tech Industry
The podcast explores the challenges founders face in accepting valuation adjustments for their companies. Many founders tend to anchor their net worth to previous valuations, making it hard for them to accept lower valuation realities. The podcast emphasizes the importance of accepting market-clearing prices, getting liquid, and considering options like recapitalization or going public. It also highlights the need for more IPOs in the tech industry, as there is a strong appetite for them among investors. The podcast suggests that smaller companies with courageous founders may be the ones to break the market open and lead the way for others to follow.
Delayed Layoffs and Getting Fit in the Startup World
The podcast touches on the delayed layoffs and restructuring decisions in the startup world. It questions why many companies wait until now to implement these necessary measures. It suggests that the optimism and blind belief in turning things around may have contributed to these delays. The podcast emphasizes the importance of taking early and decisive actions to get companies fit and rebuild with sustainable unit economics. It cites successful examples like Elon Musk's decisions during tough times and the positive outcomes they have led to.
Argentina's Leader and the World Economic Forum
The podcast briefly mentions Argentina's leader's speech at the World Economic Forum, highlighting that it generated interest among listeners. However, no specific details or insights from the speech are provided in the summary.
Tech companies trading at a premium
Tech companies like Microsoft, NVIDIA, and meta are trading at a premium of around 12-14%. Despite this, their peg ratios indicate that they are trading at a level consistent with their historical trends. This suggests that tech companies, even non-tech ones, are experiencing higher growth rates compared to the past. The increasing advantage of scale plays a crucial role in this phenomenon, as large companies generate substantial cash piles necessary to support high-growth strategies. However, it is important to note that even with these advantages, challenges and competition can arise for tech giants like Google as they strive to protect their market dominance.
Technology's impact on global GDP
Over the last 10 years, tech knowledge companies have experienced higher earnings and stock price growth compared to non-tech companies. Tech companies compounded earnings at 13% while non-tech companies only managed around 6%. Additionally, stock prices of tech companies grew at a faster rate, at around 17%, compared to about 8% for non-tech companies. This trend of higher growth and prosperity is expected to continue in the future due to the increasing importance of technology in society. As tech companies continue to outperform non-tech in terms of both earnings and stock prices, investing in technology companies offers significant long-term potential, although picking the winners remains a challenge.
The rumors were true. Enjoy another Episode of Bg2.
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(0:00) Introduction and discussion on current market trends
(3:12) Main topic: AI and its recent surge in venture capital investing
(14:04) Discussion on the potential issues in AI companies
(25:00) Analysis of public software valuations and their implications
(33:01) Future of investing in tech companies
(38:27) State of startups and challenges in raising capital
(46:37) Comparing the 1999 bubble to the current economic situation
(54:45) Analyzing Javier Milei's Speech at Davos
(1:01:20) Historical examples of the effects of open and closed economies
(1:09:09) Conclusion and farewell
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The acceleration of global GDP per capita over centuries highlights the impact of free market capitalism and innovation on human prosperity.
Venture capital investing and the tech industry play a significant role in driving progress and economic growth through fostering innovation and risk-taking by entrepreneurs.
The current venture capital correction and its impact on startups emphasize the importance of adjusting to market realities, such as valuation and capital availability, for long-term success.
#BillGurley #BradGerstner #BG2pod
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