A "whiff of stagflation", the state of US exceptionalism, and China's weak start to 2025

There’s a “whiff of stagflation” around the US economy – and that’s even before Donald Trump rolls out his reciprocal tariffs plan. 

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off a plane from New York and onto The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to give his take on the latest US consumption and price data, to preview March payrolls and to talk about what this all means for the US and global macro outlook. He’s joined by Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, who explains what all of this means for US markets exceptionalism.

Also on this week’s episode, our China Activity Proxy is our long-running proprietary read of what’s really happening with Chinese economic activity. Leah Fahy from our China team is on to discuss what the latest read of this widely followed indicator says about the trajectory for Chinese growth in 2025. 

Analysis referenced in this episode

The beginning of the end of US exceptionalism?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/asset-allocation-update/beginning-end-us-exceptionalism

Global Economic Outlook: Trade war to dampen, not derail, global growth
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/global-economic-outlook-trade-war-dampen-not-derail-global

Data: China Activity Proxy
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxy

CAP: Weak start to the year for China’s economy
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weak-start-year-chinas-economy