The KE Report Matt Warder - What You Need To Know When Investing In The Coal Market And Equity Insights
Sep 3, 2025
In this insightful discussion, Matt Warder, Publisher of The Coal Trader and an expert in coal and metals, dissects the intricate dynamics of the coal market. He explains the vital roles of thermal and metallurgical coal in power generation and steel production. With AI data centers driving demand, Matt highlights China's dominance and India's potential for growth. He outlines the cyclical nature of coal, forecasting a peak by 2026–27, and shares key stock insights, including catalysts like cost efficiencies and production growth for investors.
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Two Distinct Coal Markets
- Thermal coal serves power generation while metallurgical coal (met coal) fuels steelmaking and has different demand drivers.
- Thermal is roughly three to four times larger than the global met coal market.
AI Drives Baseload Coal Demand
- AI data center growth is raising baseload power demand and keeping coal relevant in many markets.
- Recommissioning retired coal plants is the fastest way to add baseload capacity amid turbine and nuclear lead-time constraints.
China Today, India Tomorrow
- China remains the dominant near-term driver of coal demand and will import specific specs for coastal plants.
- Long-term growth will shift toward India as it industrializes and expands power needs.