The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series Testing NATO (Trump and Europe Prepare for the Worst) || Peter Zeihan
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Oct 7, 2025 Tensions escalate as Russian drones invade NATO airspace, prompting President Trump to advocate for a shoot-down policy. Peter Zeihan explores Russia's strategic motives and the deficiencies of drone capabilities in a potential large-scale invasion. He assesses NATO's military readiness and the political will among European leaders to respond forcefully. Meanwhile, Europe seeks to enhance defense cooperation amid growing threats, all while cautioning against the risks of independent rearmament without U.S. support.
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Russia Seeking Defensible Borders
- Russia aims to re-anchor defensible borders rather than immediately seize vast new territory.
- Drones and probes test NATO resolve but cannot by themselves change long frontiers; large invasions require far more forces.
Probes To Measure NATO Capability
- Moscow's probes are designed to reveal NATO capabilities and political will.
- Small incursions let Russia learn whether allies respond with force, tech, or paralysis.
Europe Lacked Long-Range Militaries
- The U.S. long-led security role suppressed development of long-range militaries in many European states.
- Other NATO members thus lack consistent power-projection capacity beyond niche strengths.