In Moscow's Shadows In Moscow's Shadows 226: Monsters in the Woods
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Nov 30, 2025 Delve into intriguing insights on the ongoing Ukraine peace negotiations and the interplay of trust and leverage between Russia and Ukraine. Explore Mark Galeotti's perspective on Putin's strategic options and tactical maneuverings. The discussion dives into the significance of Russian folklore as a lens to understand contemporary politics, highlighting household spirits and forest monsters as metaphors for security fears. A fascinating connection is made between folklore and Russia's strategic culture, revealing how history shapes current policies.
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Putin Keeps Leverage Over Negotiations
- Vladimir Putin keeps options open and seeks deals that preserve Russian leverage rather than rely on trust.
- Peace is negotiated through enforceable penalties for non-compliance, not goodwill alone.
Ceasefire Removes Russia's Leverage
- Peace deals rely on mechanisms to punish breaches because neither side trusts the other.
- Putin demands upfront concessions because a ceasefire would remove Russia's current leverage.
Expect Deal-Focused US Mediation
- Expect Trump to prioritize a headline peace deal he can claim credit for over justice or detailed terms.
- Treat his envoys as deal-makers motivated by business logic rather than traditional national-security interests.
