Muddy Waters deep-dive short ideas explored with Carson Block
Feb 14, 2024
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CEO of Muddy Waters, Carson Block, discusses short selling trades in credit, European real estate risks, and challenges in implementing short trades. Examples of trade ideas and manipulation of real estate valuations are explored, highlighting the difficulties of short selling in a market with reduced liquidity and legal risks.
Actively short sellers like Muddy Waters focus on historical information to project potentially worse future outcomes.
Real estate sector risks are linked to subjective valuations, susceptible to manipulation for financial gain.
Deep dives
Activist Short Sellers' Focus on Historical Information for Trade Selection
Actively short sellers like Muddy Waters focus on historical information that differs from the market's understanding or reveals misrepresentation by companies. The emphasis is on past data to project a potentially worse future outcome. An example provided was the Group Casino short trade in 2015, highlighting unnoticed leverage in the company's financials.
Real Estate Sector Risks Stemming from Subjective Valuations and Manipulation
Real estate sector risks are linked to the subjective nature of valuations, which can be globally manipulated. By examining examples like Vivion and CPI, related party transactions inflate asset values, showing how property valuations can be distorted for financial gain. Carson Block emphasizes the susceptibility of real estate valuations to manipulation.
Europe's Regulatory and Investigative Fragmentation Creating Short Trade Opportunities
Europe's decentralized regulatory landscape allows for potential financial scams due to limited cross-border investigative cooperation. Companies domiciled in regions like Luxembourg exploit regulatory inefficiencies in other European countries, evading effective scrutiny. Europe's fragmented oversight compared to the centralized US SEC structure presents challenges for short sellers in navigating legal risks and reduced liquidity.
On the Debtwired! Podcast, Carson Block, CEO of Muddy Waters, joins Debtwire Europe’s Head of High Yield Adam Samoon to discuss short selling trades in credit.
Muddy Waters has exposed accounting issues and fraud at many global companies. This podcast examines what operational characteristics provide fundamentals for good short trades and monitors examples of trades that have been implemented.
A number of bonds in the European real estate sector have had large price drops in recent years. Real estate risks are considered alongside current short trade ideas across other geographies and sectors.
Lastly, the podcast explores if short selling has become harder to implement due to the new paradigm of reduced secondary liquidity and CDS orphanage event risks.
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