Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Holger Schmieding & Brian Belski
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Nov 6, 2025 Tom Keene dives into the surprising implications of the Bank of England's split vote, exploring its effects on global markets. Holger Schmieding discusses the tensions between high inflation and slowing growth, hinting at a potential new inflation regime across Europe. Brian Belsky then shares insights on market sentiment as the year wraps up, highlighting the challenges of excessive bullishness and the impacts of evolving macro narratives. The conversation wraps up with strategies for navigating uncertainties, including a possible government shutdown.
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Bank Of England Split Signals Policy Uncertainty
- Holger Schmieding highlights the Bank of England's rare 5-4 split as a sign of real policy uncertainty.
- He argues high inflation and slowing growth create a genuine quandary for central banks across Europe.
Higher Inflation Regime Risk
- Schmieding warns that a reset to a higher inflation regime is plausible, nudging rates from ~1.9% toward 2–3%.
- He links this risk to labor shortages and demographic pressures in advanced economies.
Labor Shortages As Structural Inflation Driver
- Schmieding points to labor shortages as a structural inflationary force in advanced economies.
- He emphasizes demography and low net immigration as contributors, especially in the U.S. and Europe.