FTA: The Ukraine War - Where are We and Where Do We Go From Here?
Aug 3, 2024
auto_awesome
In this discussion, Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general with over 35 years of military experience, shares his insights on the evolving landscape of the Ukraine War. He contrasts Ukrainian military optimism with U.S. skepticism regarding their counter-offensive strategies. The conversation delves into NATO's essential role, the humanitarian impact of the conflict, and how geopolitical tensions with Taiwan intertwine with shifting power dynamics. They analyze Putin's long-term military strategy and explore how both sides are adapting their tactics in this complex war.
Ukraine's military has adapted its tactics to guerrilla-style operations due to challenges in executing NATO's combined arms warfare under current conditions.
The outcome of the Ukraine war is crucial for global power dynamics, influencing both U.S. credibility and China's ambitions in Taiwan.
Deep dives
Current State of Ukraine's Counteroffensive
The situation in Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russian forces is complex, marked by both challenges and achievements. While U.S. intelligence suggests that Ukraine may struggle to reach strategic locations such as Melitopol by the summer's end, Ukrainian leaders maintain a belief in their capacity to secure victories. Key military analysts indicate that the war is multifaceted, with Ukrainians engaging in various campaigns beyond just the southern front, including successful air defense and maritime efforts. The belief that the counteroffensive has failed is deemed premature, as the Ukrainians continue to adapt their tactics and have made territorial gains despite substantial challenges.
Limitations of Combined Arms Doctrine
Ukraine's military strategy has shifted due to the realization that it cannot fully implement NATO's combined arms warfare doctrine under current conditions, particularly without air superiority. Despite initial efforts to coordinate armored assaults, the high level of Russian defenses and the dire state of supply lines prompted a return to more guerrilla-style tactics of targeting Russian logistics. Analysts highlight that predicting outcomes based solely on current conditions is fraught with uncertainty, as this conflict involves continuously shifting dynamics. The acknowledgment of these limitations in strategy underscores the necessity for a reevaluation of what combined arms operations mean in a modern context.
Western Military Support and Its Implications
The reluctance of the United States and its allies to provide Ukraine with some military assets, such as long-range strike capabilities, is viewed as a significant oversight that may affect Ukraine's effectiveness in the ongoing conflict. Experts argue that providing more substantial support early on could have resulted in a different battlefield situation for Ukraine. Despite debates surrounding inventory and supply issues, it is suggested that Ukrainians have demonstrated a remarkable ability to absorb various forms of military assistance. Moreover, as the war progresses, military analysts emphasize that a shift towards deeper strikes into Russian territory seems inevitable, making it crucial for Ukraine to increase its offensive capabilities against Russian military targets.
The Global Context of the Conflict
The ongoing war in Ukraine is framed as part of a larger struggle that influences global power dynamics, notably concerning China's ambitions regarding Taiwan. Observers note that how the U.S. manages its support for Ukraine will have ramifications beyond Europe, potentially impacting China's perception of U.S. resolve. The conflict's outcome is seen as pivotal; a perceived weakening of American commitment could embolden adversaries like Russia and China, complicating future geopolitical stability. As the situation evolves, analysts caution that continuous vigilance is necessary to ensure that the Western alliance remains coherent and united against existential threats posed by authoritarian regimes.
Michael’s guest this week is Australian Retired General Mick Ryan. Mick is a military analyst who served in the ADF for more than 35 years and was commander of the Australia Defence College. He is the author of War Transformed and an adjunct fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC. Michael and Mick discuss the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war and what could be in store for the coming months. Don’t miss it.