Encore Episode: Market-Rate Development and Neighborhood Rents with Evan Mast
Sep 18, 2024
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Evan Mast, a researcher focused on the impact of market-rate housing on low-income markets, shares his insights on neighborhood dynamics. He discusses how new developments can ease rent pressures, challenging the notion that they always lead to gentrification. The conversation dives into migration patterns, highlighting how new housing can lead to lower rents elsewhere. Mast emphasizes the importance of accurate rent data and the nuanced effects of these developments on local communities, urging policymakers to consider context in housing initiatives.
New market-rate housing in low-income neighborhoods can lead to slower rent increases in nearby properties, stabilizing local markets.
The relocation of higher-income residents into new apartments can trigger a trickle-down effect, improving affordability for lower-income individuals.
Deep dives
Impact of Market Rate Housing on Nearby Rents
New market rate apartment construction in low-income neighborhoods can counterintuitively lead to slower rent increases in nearby properties. Research suggests that instead of driving up rents, the introduction of new supply tends to stabilize them, with nearby rents increasing at a rate 5 to 7% lower than comparable areas without new developments. For instance, when comparing rent trajectories across similar neighborhoods, the data indicates that rents near new buildings do not accelerate as quickly, suggesting a dampening effect on rental costs. This finding aligns with the notion that increased housing supply contributes to overall market stability, particularly in areas that are previously experiencing gentrification.
Neighborhood-Level Effects and Gentrification
The research highlights a complex interplay between supply and demand effects at the neighborhood level, raising important questions about the impacts of new housing developments. Concerns often arise that new market rate housing could signal an increase in desirability that might lead to higher local rents and contribute to gentrification. Yet, the evidence shows that newly constructed market rate units may primarily attract higher-income residents from elsewhere, leading to vacancies in older, more affordable units, which are then occupied by lower-income individuals. This dynamic illustrates the necessity of nuanced understanding regarding how new housing interacts with local economies and communities.
Migration Chains and Housing Affordability
The concept of migration chains elucidates how new market rate developments can indirectly improve affordability in the broader housing market. When higher-income individuals move into new, expensive apartments, they vacate older units that become available to those with lesser financial means, thus creating a trickle-down effect on rental prices. The analysis reveals that approximately 67% of newcomers into these units originate from within the same metropolitan area, suggesting that despite concerns about external pressures, local demand and supply dynamics remain central. By accommodating these migrations, new constructions can ultimately lead to decreased competition for more affordable housing options.
Cautions Regarding Housing Policy and Development
While the positive effects of new market rate housing on nearby rents and broader affordability are evident, these studies urge caution in implementation and policy formulation. The findings are particularly relevant to large market-rate apartments in specific urban contexts, and factors such as zoning regulations and land use should be carefully considered. Policymakers are encouraged to ensure that housing development does not come at the expense of existing affordable units, suggesting a need for thoughtful planning. As noted, creating a balance between increasing housing supply and maintaining community stability is essential for promoting genuine affordability in diverse neighborhoods.
We’ve long known that building more homes helps keep prices in check at the regional or metro area level, but what about the house down the street? Evan Mast shares two research studies that shed light on this important and controversial question. Originally aired in 2021. Updated show notes.
“Opportunities and Obstacles for Rental Housing Registries,” Jan. 20 Lewis Center event with Assembly member Buffy Wicks and Catherine Bracy. https://youtu.be/vaDTWHxk-I8
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