In Moscow's Shadows 115: Kadyrov and the Conflict Entrepreneurs
Sep 24, 2023
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In this episode, the guest discusses Ramzan Kadyrov and the concept of 'conflict entrepreneurs' in Russia, highlighting the violence and personalistic nature of power in Chechnya. The potential departure of Kadyrov from Chechnya and its implications are explored, along with the rumors surrounding his health. The transformation of the Chechen elite and the profitability of conflicts, such as in Donbass and Ukraine, are also discussed. The episode concludes by emphasizing the war as the driving force behind the Russian elite and promising future exploration of specific conflict entrepreneurs.
Ramzan Kadirov exemplifies the rise of conflict entrepreneurs in post-Soviet Russia, monetizing the conflict and leveraging fear of a potential third Chechen war.
Conflict entrepreneurs in Russia profit from various sectors tied to the war in Ukraine, such as mercenary services, reconstruction, military provision, social media commentary, and asset acquisitions, creating challenges for disengagement efforts.
Ramzan Kadirov, as a conflict entrepreneur, effectively holds Moscow to ransom to secure continued funding and maintain control over Chechnya amidst tensions with the Russian government.
Deep dives
Ramzan Kadirov and the Rise of Conflict Entrepreneurs in Russia
Ramzan Kadirov, the leader of Chechnya, exemplifies the rise of conflict entrepreneurs in post-Soviet Russia. Kadirov has transformed Chechnya into an oppressive sultanate, maintaining control through the use of violence and exploitation. Despite relying heavily on funds from Moscow, Kadirov constantly holds the Russian government to ransom, muses about stepping down to remind them of his indispensability, and even engages in aggressive actions to assert his power. This highlights his ability to monetize the conflict and leverage the fear of a potential third Chechen war. This trend of conflict entrepreneurs in Russia is not limited to Kadirov, with other groups and individuals profiting from the ongoing war. These conflict entrepreneurs engage in various sectors such as mercenary services, reconstruction projects, military provision and procurement, social media commentary, and even acquisition of Western assets at fire sale prices. By capitalizing on the tensions and opportunities created by the war, conflict entrepreneurs secure their own financial gain and potential political influence. This phenomenon reflects an effort to create a support base beyond the traditional oligarchs and consolidate power for the long term. However, this strategy also risks exacerbating generational divisions within the Russian elite and perpetuating the war mentality in the country.
Implications for Russia and the Future
The rise of conflict entrepreneurs and their economic interests tied to the war in Ukraine has significant implications for Russia's future. The conflicts provide an opportunity for certain individuals and industries to flourish, making it harder for the Russian government to disengage from the war. The conflict entrepreneurs benefit financially from specific sectors like mercenary services, reconstruction, military provision, social media commentary, and asset acquisitions. However, their success is reliant on the continuation of the war and the maintenance of tensions between Russia and the West. This dynamic creates both short-term gains and potential challenges for the Kremlin. It allows the government to buy loyalty from a new generation of supporters and serve as a long-term strategy to shape Russia's elite. At the same time, it risks perpetuating conflicts, exacerbating generational divisions, and hindering disengagement efforts, making it harder for the government to redirect resources to other pressing needs within the country.
The Role of Ramzan Kadirov in Conflict Entrepreneurship
Ramzan Kadirov's position as the leader of Chechnya exemplifies the role of conflict entrepreneurs in Russia. He leverages the fear of a potential third Chechen war to secure his power and maintain control over Chechnya. Kadirov effectively monetizes the conflict, benefiting from vast financial resources from Moscow while creating a personalistic regime based on violence, flattery, and exploitation. Despite tensions with the Russian government, Kadirov constantly demonstrates his indispensability and holds Moscow to ransom to secure continued funding. This power play highlights Kadirov's role as a conflict entrepreneur, demonstrating the ability to profit and maintain influence in the midst of a conflict.
The Rise of Conflict Entrepreneurs in Various Sectors
The rise of conflict entrepreneurs in Russia extends beyond Ramzan Kadirov and Chechnya. These individuals and groups benefit from the ongoing war in Ukraine by capitalizing on various sectors. Mercenary services, reconstruction projects, military provision and procurement, social media commentary, and the acquisition of Western assets at fire sale prices all provide opportunities for financial gain. Conflict entrepreneurs establish themselves as key players in these sectors, profiting from the perpetuation of the war. This trend demonstrates the multi-faceted nature of conflict entrepreneurship in Russia and the diverse avenues through which individuals and groups profit from the ongoing conflicts.
The Economic and Political Impact of Conflict Entrepreneurs
The rise of conflict entrepreneurs and their economic interests tied to the war in Ukraine has both economic and political implications. Conflict entrepreneurs benefit financially from the perpetuation of the war, leading to potential conflicts of interest and challenges for the Russian government. The war provides avenues for individuals and industries to profit, but also perpetuates divisions within the elite and fosters a war mentality in the country. By leveraging the conflict and monetizing various sectors, conflict entrepreneurs gain economic power and potential political influence, shaping the dynamics of Russia's elite. This phenomenon has implications for the future trajectory of the country, as the interests of conflict entrepreneurs may influence government decisions and prolong the war.
Is Kadyrov dying? If so, who might replace him - and what may this mean for Russia. If Chechnya again becomes unstable, will Putin be faced with a choice of losing in Ukraine or in Chechnya?
In any case, Kadyrov was one of the first and most successful of Russia's 'conflict entrepreneurs,' able to monetise the threat or actuality of war. The invasion of Ukraine is creating a whole slew of new conflict entrepreneurs, who will represent not just a constituency with an interest in continued conflict, but also may be being nurtured as the state looks to find a new support base.
The BBC report I mention is here, and the podcast on the Rosgvardiya and its business empire is episode 11, here.
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