Hedgeye Investing Summit: "Smartest Guy in the Room Talks Gold, Crypto & Manias" with Josh Crumb
Oct 25, 2018
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Josh Crumb, currency and metals strategist, discusses the surprising move in energy, speculating in the cannabis market, the authenticity of cannabis dialogue, special drawing rights and Chinese stimulus impact, analyzing PPI and CPI, unwinding tech and momentum, liquidity concerns, and understanding credit spread risk and the role of gold.
Energy assets have strong performance while metals underperform in the current market setup.
Gold and copper influence currencies, terms of trade, and the overall macro economy.
Investors should exercise caution when investing in cannabis stocks due to potential fraud and misrepresentation.
Deep dives
The impact of quantitative tightening and the shale revolution on macroeconomics
The podcast discusses the effects of quantitative tightening in the US dollar and the shale revolution on macroeconomics. It highlights the importance of energy in the role of currencies, commodities, and the overall macro economy. The speaker emphasizes the strong performance of energy assets and the underperformance of metals, both precious and base, in the current market setup.
The role of gold and copper as stock macro assets
The podcast explores the positioning of gold and copper as stock macro assets. It explains that gold and copper, along with other commodities, influence currency and terms of trade, and have a significant impact on the overall macro economy. It also highlights the recent downtrend of gold and the reasons behind it.
The re-pricing of the marginal cost of energy assets
The podcast discusses the re-pricing of the marginal cost of energy assets and how it has influenced the overall macroeconomy. It explains that the marginal cost of energy has bottomed and started to rise, impacting energy markets and leading to a cyclical rise in energy prices. It also mentions the significant role of Chinese policies on coal and natural gas consumption in driving the switch to gas and the tight supply situation in the market.
Cautionary notes on investing in cannabis stocks
The podcast cautions investors about the potential risks of investing in cannabis stocks. It highlights that while the industry is experiencing significant speculation and mania driven by cheap money and speculative theses, caution should be exercised due to the potential fraud and misrepresentation prevalent in the Canadian venture markets. It advises investors to thoroughly understand the capital structure, ownership, and distribution dynamics in order to make informed investment decisions.
The outlook for crypto commodities
The podcast provides insights into the outlook for crypto commodities. The speaker emphasizes the need to move away from traditional internet models that hoard data and pose privacy concerns. Instead, he believes that the future lies in decentralized systems that offer secure digital assets, such as digital contracts and bearer bonds, which can be moved globally within minutes. He suggests investing in companies that are creating infrastructure for fully digitized assets and smart contracts.