Catherine Philp, World Affairs editor at The Times and an expert in global security, discusses the precarious situation in Syria and the potential resurgence of the Islamic State. She highlights how ongoing instability may allow IS to reclaim influence amid the dominance of HTS. The podcast dives into the brutal tactics of IS, including recent executions, and contrasts their violence with other groups. Additionally, Philp warns about the repercussions of Western policies that leave IS fighters unaddressed, further complicating security in the region.
The power vacuum in Syria created by the Assad regime's decline presents a critical opportunity for the Islamic State to reassert its influence.
Western nations' inaction on repatriating IS fighters compounds regional instability, fostering an environment ripe for extremist recruitment and resurgence.
Deep dives
The Persistence of Islamic State in Syria
Islamic State (IS) remains active in Syria despite a quieter presence in recent years. Reports indicate that remnants of the group are attempting to remind the populace of their influence, notably by raising their black flag in Christian neighborhoods such as Homs. Additionally, IS members are detained in various camps within Kurdish-controlled areas of Syria, with significant international pressure on countries to repatriate their nationals. The situation highlights the risks associated with these camps, as the possible withdrawal of Kurdish forces could lead to unpredictable outcomes regarding who might regain control of these prisoners.
The Role of HTS and Future Stability
Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which now controls parts of Syria, has an evolving relationship with IS that prompts concern among the local population. While HTS originally allied with IS, their violent tactics drove a wedge between them, yet there remains unease regarding HTS's intentions as they exhibit Islamist governance. Although HTS has made gestures towards reconciliation and moderation, reports suggest underlying hardline behaviors, such as the oppression of alcohol use. The potential for IS to become active again in the power vacuum created by the Assad regime's fall remains a critical issue, with ungoverned spaces in eastern Syria providing fertile ground for extremist resurgence.
The Consequences of Western Response to Extremism
Western nations face criticism for their failure to repatriate and address the situation of IS fighters and their families, leaving many in precarious conditions. This inaction contributes to a breeding ground for new grievances and potential recruitment for extremist groups, as battle-hardened individuals are left in unstable regions. The lack of responsibility in managing these detainees raises serious questions about the long-term implications for global security and regional stability. Ultimately, the fallout from the Assad regime’s downfall reflects a complex interplay of past mismanagement and the continuing threat of extremism in the region.
Is the uncertainty within Syria opening an opportunity for Islamic State to surge back? As HTS looks to take control, The Times' World Affairs editor, Catherine Philp, explains how IS, which remains far more extreme than any other Islamist group, will be eyeing this moment as its chance to return.
The World in 10 is the Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Expert analysis of war, diplomatic relations and cyber security from The Times' foreign correspondents and military specialists.