Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 18th, 2025
6 snips
Nov 18, 2025 
Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, analyzes the resilience of the U.S. consumer amidst rising credit stress and discusses the optimistic projections for AI's impact on earnings. Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, forecasts payroll dynamics and explores the delicate balance between growth and inflation concerns. Kay Herr, CIO at J.P. Morgan, offers insights on long-dated corporate debt and Fed policy expectations. Lastly, Rep. French Hill talks about tariff dividend checks and congressional priorities on housing affordability.
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Resilient Markets, Anxious Consumers
- Consumer sentiment is deeply negative, driven by existential fears about job prospects and AI automation.
- Lisa Shalett warns this sentiment, especially at the lower end of the K-shaped recovery, could constrain consumption despite strong markets.
Earnings Hope Versus Realistic Productivity
- Morgan Stanley expects 2026 earnings to be 'decent' not dramatic, forecasting 5–10% growth rather than the 15–20% priced in by markets.
- Shalett highlights that forecasted margin expansion assumes rapid productivity gains that may be unrealistic.
Rotate Beyond Mega-Cap Tech
- Seek opportunities beyond mega-cap AI names, including financials, healthcare, and energy.
- Shalett recommends picking through forgotten or squeezed sectors to find new leadership and returns.