Aaron Blake is a senior political reporter and author of The Campaign Moment newsletter, while Lenny Bronner is a data scientist focused on election models at The Post. They delve into Kamala Harris's rising support in battleground states like Nevada and Arizona, highlighting her impact on Trump’s defenses. The duo discusses innovative polling dynamics, the implications of third-party candidates, and Harris's strategies to appeal to key demographics, showcasing her evolving viability as a candidate in the shifting political landscape.
Data scientists engage in exploratory analysis of election data, providing unique insights that complement traditional polling methods.
Kamala Harris's rising popularity in key battleground states indicates strategic advantages for Democrats and new electoral pathways for victory.
Deep dives
Distinction Between Data Scientists and Pollsters
Data scientists and pollsters serve different roles in the realm of data analysis, particularly in elections. While pollsters possess extensive expertise in their field, data scientists, like those at The Washington Post, often work with data that is handed to them without a preconceived hypothesis. This results in data scientists engaging in exploratory analysis to uncover interesting insights from the available election data. Ultimately, this fundamental difference underscores the contrasting approaches to data interpretation in political contexts.
Electoral Dynamics and Kamala Harris's Performance
Kamala Harris has shown a significant shift in polling numbers, particularly in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Her recent polling surge indicates she is now in a strong position, having gained a lead that surpasses Joe Biden's performance at a similar point in his campaign. This increase in support can be attributed to her improved favorability among demographics that previously favored Biden, suggesting a strategic advantage for Democrats moving into the election. The ability to make up ground in traditionally contested states presents new opportunities for her campaign's electoral strategy.
The Importance of Electoral Paths and Running Mates
Kamala Harris has opened multiple pathways to victory by making traditionally red states competitive while still solidifying support in the Rust Belt. This flexibility allows her campaign to consider different strategies beyond relying solely on states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The discussion around running mates also reveals that while selecting candidates from safe states may not have a significant impact, it creates room for strategic maneuvering, particularly in shaping public perception of candidates. Acknowledging that small advantages can sway tight races emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive electoral approach.
Senior political reporter Aaron Blake, who writes The Campaign Moment newsletter, sits down with Lenny Bronner, a data scientist who works on election models at The Post. They talk about new polling numbers in battleground states and how Harris has put Trump on defense in states like Nevada and Arizona.
Today’s show was produced by Trinity Webster-Bass and Laura Benshoff. It was mixed by Rennie Svirnoskiy. It was edited by Lucy Perkins and Mary Jo Murphy.
Subscribe to Aaron’s newsletter, The Campaign Moment, here.